Microsoft Corporation（MSFT）本質的価値とDCFバリュエーション

Software - Infrastructure · NASDAQ

Microsoft Corporation の本質的価値はいくらですか？

2026-08-21 時点で、ベースケースDCFモデルは Microsoft Corporation（MSFT）の1株当たり本質的価値を $477.09 と試算しています。市場価格 $483.24 に対し、安全マージンは -1.3% です。ベースケースはフリーキャッシュフローの年成長率 20.0%、割引率 10.0% を前提としています。

感応度グリッド全体では、試算値は $401.9 から $561.71 の範囲に広がります。本質的価値は前提に基づく試算であり、事実ではありません。割引率の上昇や成長の鈍化は試算値を押し下げ、キャッシュフロー成長の加速は押し上げます。

DCFの仕組み · ご自身の前提で再計算 · 本質的価値とは？

Microsoft Corporation（MSFT）は割安ですか？

現在の株価 $483.24 では、MSFT はベースケース本質的価値の試算を 1.3% ほど上回っており、小幅なプレミアムです。このモデルでは価格は通常の水準に収まっていますが、前提を上回る成長があれば見方は変わります。

評価：Charlie Wang（元監査人）

会社概要

Microsoft Corporation is a prominent global technology firm that invents, markets, and provides ongoing assistance for a diverse range of software, digital services, computing devices, and comprehensive solutions. Its operations are organized into three primary divisions: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment delivers crucial tools for both enterprises and individual users. This includes the extensive Office suite (comprising Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Office 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft Viva, and Skype for Business), along with popular consumer offerings like Skype, Outlook.com, OneDrive, and LinkedIn. It also features Dynamics 365, a suite of integrated cloud and on-premises business applications tailored for organizations. The Intelligent Cloud division focuses on sophisticated infrastructure and platform services. Here, Microsoft licenses key products such as SQL Server, Windows Servers, Visual Studio, System Center, and associated Client Access Licenses. It also includes GitHub, a leading platform for developer collaboration and code hosting; Nuance, offering advanced AI solutions for healthcare and businesses; and Azure, its expansive cloud computing platform. This segment further encompasses enterprise support, Microsoft consulting services, and Nuance professional services, assisting clients with the development, deployment, and management of Microsoft's server and desktop technologies, alongside offering product training and certification. Finally, the More Personal Computing segment covers a broad spectrum of consumer and commercial computing experiences. It generates revenue through Windows operating system licensing, including agreements with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), non-volume licensing, and various Windows Commercial offerings (such as volume licensing and cloud services), as well as patent licensing and Windows Internet of Things (IoT). This division also supplies its own hardware, including Surface devices, PC accessories, and gaming/entertainment consoles. Its Gaming portfolio features Xbox hardware, content, and subscription services, in addition to video games and royalties from third-party titles. Furthermore, it manages search services like Bing and Microsoft's advertising platforms. Microsoft distributes its extensive product line via numerous channels, including original equipment manufacturers, wholesale distributors, and various resellers, complementing direct sales through digital marketplaces, its own online storefronts, and physical retail outlets. The company, established in 1975, maintains its headquarters in Redmond, Washington.

財務指標 — MSFT バリュエーションデータ

直近12ヶ月のデータでは、MSFT の1株当たりFCFは $9.02、投下資本利益率（ROIC）は 20.6% で、これらはDCF法による株式評価の重要な入力値です。P/FCFは 53.6x、FCF利回りは 1.87% で、MSFT の相対的なバリュエーションを評価する際の参考指標となります。

よくある質問

関連リンク

• MSFT のPERバリュエーションを見る → — 利益ベースのPERバリュエーション分析
• DCF法の解説 — 割引キャッシュフロー分析のステップ別ガイド
• PER法の解説 — PERバリュエーションのガイド
• WACC — DCFで用いる割引率の理解
• 安全マージン — 下方リスクの評価方法
• 本質的価値 — 株式の適正株価を評価する方法
• 本質的価値の計算方法 — 投資家向けの完全ガイド