Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Restaurants · NYSE
Current Price
$38.34
Intrinsic Value
$43.74
+12.3% margin of safety
What Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-30, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) at $43.74 per share, compared with a market price of $38.34, a margin of safety of +12.3%. The base case assumes 10.6% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $36.71 to $51.71. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Undervalued?
At $38.34, CMG trades about 12.3% below the base-case intrinsic value estimate. That is a real discount, but it stays short of the 30% margin of safety required before calling a stock undervalued.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Brand Loyalty and Recognition
Chipotle has cultivated a strong brand identity and loyal customer base. This recognition drives repeat business and allows for premium pricing compared to generic competitors.
↑Operational Efficiency and Scale
The company's focus on operational excellence and its extensive store network create economies of scale. This efficiency supports consistent product quality and cost management.
↑Digital Ordering and Delivery Ecosystem
Chipotle's investment in digital platforms and delivery partnerships has built a convenient ecosystem. This enhances customer accessibility and captures a growing market segment.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Food Safety and Health Concerns
Past foodborne illness outbreaks have damaged Chipotle's reputation. Any future incidents could severely impact consumer trust and sales.
↓Dependence on Key Suppliers
While striving for quality, Chipotle may rely on a limited number of suppliers for certain ingredients. Disruptions to these supply chains could affect product availability and cost.
↓Economic Sensitivity of Consumer Spending
As a discretionary purchase, Chipotle's sales can be negatively affected by economic downturns. Consumers may reduce spending on dining out during periods of financial uncertainty.
Base case
CMG base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$43.74
Margin of safety
+12.3%
Expected annual return
+2.7%
Base case assumptions: 10.6% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-30.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the CMG valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for CMGCompany Overview
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.
Financial Metrics — CMG Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$9.65
FCF/Share (TTM)
$1.22
ROIC (TTM)
18.0%
ROE (TTM)
53.3%
P/FCF
31.3x
EV/EBITDA
24.2x
FCF Yield
3.19%
Debt/Equity
2.46x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, CMG generates free cash flow per share of $1.22 alongside a ROIC of 18.0%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 31.3x and FCF yield of 3.19% then frame how CMG is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of CMG?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. currently generates $1.22 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $38.34, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is CMG undervalued?
CMG trades at a P/FCF ratio of 31.3x with a free cash flow yield of 3.19%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether CMG is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value CMG stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($1.22) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Restaurants industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting CMG's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 2.46x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to CMG?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Restaurants trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. CMG's ROIC of 18.0% reflects how efficiently the company converts invested capital into profit.
How does WACC affect CMG stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For CMG, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.46x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 24.2x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See CMG PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value CMG with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-30. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.