Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Stock Valuation — PE Analysis
Restaurants · NYSE
Current Price
$32.23
PE Ratio (TTM)
28.8x
Intrinsic Value
$44.74
+28.0% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Cultivated Brand Loyalty
Chipotle's strong brand recognition and successful rewards program foster deep customer loyalty. This encourages repeat business and makes it harder for competitors to lure away its core customer base.
↑Operational Efficiency
The company's streamlined "Food with Integrity" model and focus on digital ordering create efficient operations. This allows for faster service and a consistent customer experience, driving traffic.
↑Scalable Business Model
Chipotle's standardized menu and store design enable rapid expansion and replication across new markets. This allows for efficient growth and market penetration.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intense Competition
The fast-casual restaurant sector is highly competitive with numerous players vying for consumer dollars. New entrants and established rivals can erode market share.
↓Input Cost Volatility
Fluctuations in the cost of key ingredients like beef, avocados, and cheese can significantly impact profit margins. This requires careful pricing strategies and supply chain management.
↓Consumer Sentiment Shifts
Negative publicity or changing consumer preferences regarding food sourcing or health can quickly impact sales. Maintaining a positive brand image is crucial.
Base case
CMG base case PE valuation
A base case PE valuation for CMG estimates a fair value of about $44.74 per share, against a current price of $32.23. The model assumes 13.8% annual earnings growth, a 29x target PE multiple, and a 10% discount rate.
Intrinsic Value
$44.74
Margin of safety
+28.0%
Expected annual return
+6.8%
Base case assumptions: 13.8% annual earnings growth, 29x target PE, 10% discount rate, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The fair value changes significantly when the target PE or earnings growth rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the CMG PE valuation
Adjust the target PE, earnings growth, and discount rate to see how the fair value and margin of safety for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. respond.
Open PE Calculator for CMGCompany Overview
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.
Financial Metrics — CMG PE Stock Valuation Data
PE Ratio (TTM)
28.8x
PEG Ratio
n/m
Earnings Yield
3.47%
ROE (TTM)
48.4%
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$9.35
Debt/Equity
2.18x
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the PE ratio of CMG?
The trailing twelve-month PE ratio of CMG reflects how much investors pay per dollar of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s earnings. This metric is most useful when compared to Restaurants peers and the company's own historical range.
Is CMG overvalued based on PE ratio?
CMG's PE of 28.8x combined with a PEG ratio of -6.57 provides a growth-adjusted perspective. CMG has negative earnings, so its PE and PEG ratios are not meaningful here and cannot tell you whether the stock is over or undervalued. Keep in mind that PE-based valuation works best for profitable, mature companies — for high-growth or cyclical Restaurants, a DCF analysis may be more appropriate.
How do I value CMG stock using PE ratio?
To value Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. using PE: (1) Compare the current PE (28.8x) against the Restaurants median to assess relative pricing, (2) check the PEG ratio (-6.57) to adjust for growth expectations, (3) review the 5-year PE range to identify where the stock sits historically, and (4) estimate fair value by multiplying a target PE by forward EPS estimates. This relative approach complements DCF's absolute valuation.
What is the PEG ratio of CMG?
CMG's PEG ratio is -6.57, calculated by dividing the PE ratio (28.8x) by the expected earnings growth rate. Because CMG has negative earnings, its PEG ratio is not meaningful and should not be read as a sign of under or overvaluation. Note that PEG accuracy depends on the reliability of growth estimates.
Should I use PE ratio or DCF for CMG stock valuation?
PE ratio gives a quick relative read — how CMG is priced versus Restaurants peers. DCF provides an absolute value based on projected free cash flows. For CMG, with a strong ROE of 48.4%, both methods are worth using — PE for a market-relative check, DCF to stress-test whether fundamentals justify the price. Each method has blind spots: PE ignores capital structure and cash flow quality, while DCF is sensitive to growth and discount rate assumptions.
Learn More
- See CMG DCF Valuation → — Intrinsic value via Discounted Cash Flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Step-by-step guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- DCF Methodology — Guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Ratio — Understanding the price-to-earnings ratio
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
Related PE Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsP/E and DCF value CMG with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the DCF intrinsic value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.