Restaurants · NYSE
Current Price
$32.98
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
Run a full DCF analysis on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. with auto-filled fundamentals, adjustable assumptions, and sensitivity heatmap.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of February 15, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,000 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
ROIC (TTM)
18.5%
ROE (TTM)
48.4%
FCF Yield
3.51%
Based on trailing twelve-month data, CMG shows a free cash flow per share of N/A and a ROIC of 18.5%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of N/A and FCF yield of 3.51% are important context metrics when evaluating CMG's stock valuation relative to peers.
The intrinsic value of CMG depends on assumptions about future growth rate, discount rate (WACC), and terminal value. A DCF model discounts projected free cash flows back to present value — small changes in WACC can shift the estimate by 20% or more, which is why sensitivity analysis is essential.
Whether CMG is undervalued depends on comparing the DCF-derived intrinsic value to the current market price of $32.98. A positive margin of safety (intrinsic value above market price) suggests potential undervaluation, but the degree of confidence depends on the reliability of your growth and discount rate assumptions.
To perform a DCF valuation on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Restaurants industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting CMG's risk profile, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the Restaurants will produce over the next 5-10 years, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. CMG's ROIC of 18.5% indicates strong capital efficiency, which supports higher growth assumptions in the DCF model.
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For CMG, the capital structure and equity risk premium determine WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%.
