The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Apparel - Retail · NYSE
Current Price
$158.30
Intrinsic Value
$184.86
+14.4% margin of safety
What Is The TJX Companies, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-30, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) at $184.86 per share, compared with a market price of $158.3, a margin of safety of +14.4%. The base case assumes 11.5% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $155.2 to $218.47. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) Undervalued?
At $158.3, TJX trades about 14.4% below the base-case intrinsic value estimate. That is a real discount, but it stays short of the 30% margin of safety required before calling a stock undervalued.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Off-Price Retail Dominance
TJX's vast network of stores and established supplier relationships create a significant scale advantage. This allows them to secure desirable merchandise at lower costs than competitors.
↑Merchandise Mix Expertise
The company excels at sourcing diverse and appealing branded merchandise, creating a treasure-hunt shopping experience. This unique value proposition drives customer loyalty and repeat visits.
↑Brand Portfolio Strength
TJX operates multiple distinct banners (TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, etc.), catering to different customer segments. This diversification reduces reliance on any single brand's performance.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Economic Sensitivity
As a discretionary retailer, TJX's sales can be significantly impacted by economic downturns and consumer spending habits. Reduced disposable income can lead to lower sales volumes.
↓Brand Dilution Concerns
Rapid expansion and the constant influx of varied merchandise could potentially dilute the perceived value or exclusivity of its brands over time.
↓Supply Chain Disruptions
Global supply chain issues, geopolitical events, or supplier reliability problems can directly affect TJX's ability to procure and offer its unique merchandise assortment.
Base case
TJX base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$184.86
Margin of safety
+14.4%
Expected annual return
+3.2%
Base case assumptions: 11.5% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-30.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the TJX valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for The TJX Companies, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for TJXCompany Overview
The TJX Companies, Inc., alongside its various associated businesses, functions as a major discount retailer focusing on clothing and household decor. Its operations are organized into four primary divisions: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International. The enterprise markets an extensive selection of goods, including clothing for all family members (such as shoes and complementary items); a broad array of home furnishings and accessories (ranging from essential household goods, furniture, floor coverings, and lighting fixtures to gift items, soft textiles, decorative pieces, dining wares, and kitchen utensils), alongside growing departments for pet supplies, children's products, and gourmet foodstuffs. Jewelry, additional accessories, and various general merchandise are also available. By the close of February 23, 2022, TJX maintained a considerable retail network across several continents. In the United States, this footprint included 1,284 T.J. Maxx, 1,148 Marshalls, 850 HomeGoods, 59 Sierra, and 39 Homesense physical stores, complemented by online portals like tjmaxx.com, marshalls.com, and sierra.com. Its Canadian presence featured 293 Winners, 147 HomeSense, and 106 Marshalls outlets. European consumers could visit 618 T.K. Maxx and 77 Homesense locations, with an e-commerce option at tkmaxx.com. Furthermore, Australia hosted 68 T.K. Maxx establishments. Established in 1962, the firm's corporate headquarters are located in Framingham, Massachusetts.
Financial Metrics — TJX Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$54.99
FCF/Share (TTM)
$4.89
ROIC (TTM)
22.1%
ROE (TTM)
59.7%
P/FCF
31.9x
EV/EBITDA
20.3x
FCF Yield
3.13%
Debt/Equity
1.36x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, TJX shows a free cash flow per share of $4.89 and a ROIC of 22.1%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 31.9x and FCF yield of 3.13% are important context metrics when evaluating TJX's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of TJX?
The TJX Companies, Inc. currently generates $4.89 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $158.30, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is TJX undervalued?
TJX trades at a P/FCF ratio of 31.9x with a free cash flow yield of 3.13%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether TJX is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value TJX stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on The TJX Companies, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($4.89) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Apparel - Retail industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting TJX's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.36x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to TJX?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For The TJX Companies, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Apparel - Retail trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. TJX's ROIC of 22.1% reflects how efficiently the company converts invested capital into profit.
How does WACC affect TJX stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For TJX, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 20.3x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See TJX PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value TJX with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-30. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.