Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Auto - Manufacturers · NASDAQ
Current Price
$406.43
Intrinsic Value
Outside reliable range
What Is Tesla, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
Our base-case DCF model produces an intrinsic value estimate for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) that falls outside the range we consider reliable, so treat any single number with extra caution. This usually happens with unusual cash flow patterns or rapid recent changes in the business.
How our DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Undervalued?
Because the model output for TSLA is outside our reliability range, we do not give an undervalued or overvalued read here. Use the calculator below to test your own assumptions instead.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Brand Loyalty & Cult Following
Tesla's brand transcends automotive, fostering intense customer loyalty. This emotional connection drives repeat purchases and organic marketing, a rare feat in the industry.
↑Vertical Integration & Tech Edge
Control over battery production, software, and charging infrastructure provides a significant technological and cost advantage. This integration allows for rapid innovation and optimization.
↑Data Network Effects
The vast fleet of connected Teslas generates invaluable real-world driving data. This data fuels AI development for autonomous driving and product improvements, creating a self-reinforcing cycle.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Elon Musk's Diversification & Distraction
Musk's increasing involvement with SpaceX and X (formerly Twitter) could dilute his focus on Tesla. This raises concerns about strategic direction and execution.
↓Intensifying Competition
Legacy automakers and new EV startups are rapidly closing the technology gap. Tesla faces increasing pressure on pricing and market share from a growing field of rivals.
↓Regulatory & Geopolitical Headwinds
Global regulatory scrutiny on EVs and battery production, coupled with geopolitical tensions, could impact supply chains and market access. This creates uncertainty for future growth.
Base case
TSLA base case valuation
Base case assumptions: 20.0% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the TSLA valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Tesla, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for TSLACompany Overview
Tesla, Inc. operates globally, specializing in the creation, production, and distribution of electric vehicles, alongside comprehensive energy generation and storage solutions. Its market reach extends across the United States, China, and various other international regions. The company's operations are primarily divided into two main segments: its Automotive business and its Energy Generation and Storage division. Within its Automotive division, Tesla not only provides a range of electric cars but also generates revenue from selling automotive regulatory credits. This segment further encompasses a variety of post-sale services, including non-warranty vehicle support, sales of pre-owned vehicles, various retail products, and car insurance offerings. Customers can acquire Tesla's sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct sales, purchases of used vehicles, or via in-app upgrades often facilitated by the extensive Tesla Supercharger network. The company supports these acquisitions with financing and leasing options. Furthermore, it ensures vehicle upkeep through its proprietary service centers and a fleet of mobile technicians, complemented by both standard and extended vehicle warranty programs. The Energy Generation and Storage segment focuses on the development, manufacturing, setup, sale, and rental of solar power systems and energy storage products, along with associated services. This caters to a diverse clientele, spanning residential users, commercial enterprises, industrial entities, and public utilities. Distribution channels include Tesla's online platform, physical stores, galleries, and a network of collaborative partners. The company also offers servicing and repairs for its energy products, including warranty support, and provides multiple financing avenues for those investing in its solar solutions. Founded in 2003, the corporation was initially named Tesla Motors, Inc., before officially rebranding to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Austin, Texas.
Financial Metrics — TSLA Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$30.27
FCF/Share (TTM)
$2.16
ROIC (TTM)
3.2%
ROE (TTM)
4.8%
P/FCF
218.1x
EV/EBITDA
145.0x
FCF Yield
0.46%
Debt/Equity
0.11x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, TSLA shows a free cash flow per share of $2.16 and a ROIC of 3.2%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 218.1x and FCF yield of 0.46% are important context metrics when evaluating TSLA's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of TSLA?
Tesla, Inc. currently generates $2.16 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $406.43, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is TSLA undervalued?
TSLA trades at a P/FCF ratio of 218.1x with a free cash flow yield of 0.46%. This elevated P/FCF suggests the market is pricing in significant future growth. However, whether TSLA is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value TSLA stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Tesla, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($2.16) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Auto - Manufacturers industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting TSLA's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.11x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to TSLA?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Tesla, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Auto - Manufacturers trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. TSLA's ROIC of 3.2% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect TSLA stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For TSLA, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 145.0x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See TSLA PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value TSLA with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.