Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Travel Services · NASDAQ
Current Price
$157.63
Intrinsic Value
$213.84
+26.3% margin of safety
What Is Booking Holdings Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-10-06, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) at $213.84 per share, compared with a market price of $157.63, a margin of safety of +26.3%. The base case assumes 9.4% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $164.34 to $271.1. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Undervalued?
At $157.63, BKNG trades about 26.3% below the base-case intrinsic value estimate. That is a real discount, but it stays short of the 30% margin of safety required before calling a stock undervalued.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Vast Global Network
Booking.com's extensive inventory of hotels and accommodations worldwide creates a powerful network effect. Travelers go there because it has everything, and suppliers list there because it reaches everyone.
↑Brand Recognition and Trust
Booking.com is a household name in online travel, fostering significant brand recognition and trust among consumers. This leads to repeat business and a preference over lesser-known competitors.
↑Data and Scale Advantage
The sheer volume of bookings generates vast amounts of data, enabling sophisticated personalization and operational efficiencies. This scale makes it difficult for smaller players to compete on price or user experience.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Regulatory Scrutiny
The online travel industry faces ongoing regulatory scrutiny regarding competition, pricing, and data privacy. New regulations could impact Booking.com's business model and profitability.
↓Economic Downturns
Travel is discretionary spending, making Booking.com vulnerable to economic recessions or global events that reduce consumer confidence and travel budgets.
↓Technological Disruption
Emerging technologies, including AI, could fundamentally alter how travel is booked. Failure to adapt or integrate new technologies could lead to a loss of competitive edge.
Base case
BKNG base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$213.84
Margin of safety
+26.3%
Expected annual return
+6.3%
Base case assumptions: 9.4% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 12.8x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-10-06.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the BKNG valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Booking Holdings Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for BKNGCompany Overview
Booking Holdings Inc. is a leading global provider of online travel and dining reservation services. The company manages a portfolio of well-known digital platforms. Among these, Booking.com specializes in online accommodation bookings, while Rentalcars.com is dedicated to facilitating vehicle rentals. Priceline offers a comprehensive range of online travel booking options, encompassing hotels, flights, rental cars, vacation packages, and cruises, alongside hotel distribution services. Agoda also provides online lodging reservations, further expanding into flights, ground transportation, and activity bookings. For travelers seeking the best deals, KAYAK functions as an online price comparison service, enabling users to search and contrast prices for airline tickets, hotels, and car rentals. Additionally, OpenTable allows for convenient online restaurant reservations. Beyond its core booking services, Booking Holdings Inc. also supplies travel-related insurance products and restaurant management solutions to individual consumers, travel service providers, and restaurants. Established in 1997, the company is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut. It officially adopted its current name, Booking Holdings Inc., in February 2018, having previously operated as The Priceline Group Inc.
Financial Metrics — BKNG Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$36.77
FCF/Share (TTM)
$12.42
ROIC (TTM)
71.2%
ROE (TTM)
-96.7%
P/FCF
12.7x
EV/EBITDA
11.6x
FCF Yield
7.81%
Debt/Equity
n/m
Based on trailing twelve-month data, BKNG shows a free cash flow per share of $12.42 and a ROIC of 71.2%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 12.7x and FCF yield of 7.81% are important context metrics when evaluating BKNG's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of BKNG?
Booking Holdings Inc. currently generates $12.42 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $157.63, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is BKNG undervalued?
BKNG trades at a P/FCF ratio of 12.7x with a free cash flow yield of 7.81%. A low P/FCF means investors are paying less per dollar of free cash flow; whether that is cheap depends on the company's growth, cyclicality, and capital intensity. However, whether BKNG is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value BKNG stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Booking Holdings Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($12.42) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Travel Services industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting BKNG's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of -1.92x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to BKNG?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Booking Holdings Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Travel Services trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. BKNG's ROIC of 71.2% reflects how efficiently the company converts invested capital into profit.
How does WACC affect BKNG stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For BKNG, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -1.92x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 11.6x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See BKNG PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value BKNG with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-06. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.