Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Travel Lodging · NASDAQ
Current Price
$376.99
Intrinsic Value
$319.53
-18.0% margin of safety
What Is Marriott International, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-30, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) at $319.53 per share, compared with a market price of $376.99, a margin of safety of -18.0%. The base case assumes 4.1% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $267.48 to $378.88. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) Undervalued?
At the current price of $376.99, MAR trades above the base-case intrinsic value estimate by a meaningful margin. By this model the stock looks expensive, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Vast Loyalty Program Ecosystem
Marriott Bonvoy boasts millions of members, creating significant switching costs and a powerful network effect. This program drives repeat business and brand loyalty.
↑Brand Portfolio Strength
Marriott's diverse portfolio of brands, from luxury to select-service, caters to a wide range of travelers. This broad appeal reduces reliance on any single market segment.
↑Scale and Operational Expertise
Decades of experience and global scale provide operational efficiencies and strong relationships with franchisees and suppliers. This allows for consistent service delivery.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Economic Sensitivity and Recessions
Travel and hospitality are highly cyclical. Economic downturns can significantly reduce discretionary spending on travel, impacting occupancy rates and revenue.
↓Intensifying Competition
The hotel industry is highly competitive, with numerous global brands and independent operators vying for market share. New entrants and aggressive pricing can erode profitability.
↓Geopolitical Instability and Travel Disruptions
Global events, such as pandemics, political unrest, or natural disasters, can severely disrupt international travel patterns and demand for lodging.
Base case
MAR base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$319.53
Margin of safety
-18.0%
Expected annual return
-3.3%
Base case assumptions: 4.1% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-30.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the MAR valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Marriott International, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for MARCompany Overview
Marriott International, Inc. is a leading global hospitality firm responsible for managing, franchising, and licensing a wide range of accommodation options, including hotels, residential units, and timeshare resorts, on an international scale. The company segments its extensive operations into North America (covering the U.S. and Canada) and its various international divisions. Under its corporate umbrella, Marriott oversees a diverse collection of esteemed brands, such as JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, W Hotels, Sheraton, Westin, and Courtyard, among many others. As of February 15, 2022, its impressive network encompassed nearly 8,000 properties—specifically 7,989 establishments—operating across 139 countries and territories under 30 distinct hotel brand names. Established in 1927, Marriott International, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland.
Financial Metrics — MAR Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$98.98
FCF/Share (TTM)
$11.60
ROIC (TTM)
15.3%
ROE (TTM)
-74.1%
P/FCF
31.9x
EV/EBITDA
24.4x
FCF Yield
3.13%
Debt/Equity
n/m
Based on trailing twelve-month data, MAR shows a free cash flow per share of $11.60 and a ROIC of 15.3%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 31.9x and FCF yield of 3.13% are important context metrics when evaluating MAR's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of MAR?
Marriott International, Inc. currently generates $11.60 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $376.99, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is MAR undervalued?
MAR trades at a P/FCF ratio of 31.9x with a free cash flow yield of 3.13%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether MAR is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value MAR stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Marriott International, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($11.60) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Travel Lodging industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting MAR's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of -4.25x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to MAR?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Marriott International, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Travel Lodging trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. MAR's ROIC of 15.3% reflects how efficiently the company converts invested capital into profit.
How does WACC affect MAR stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For MAR, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -4.25x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 24.4x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See MAR PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value MAR with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-30. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.