Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Travel Lodging · NYSE
Current Price
$323.10
Intrinsic Value
$291.55
-10.8% margin of safety
What Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-30, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) at $291.55 per share, compared with a market price of $323.1, a margin of safety of -10.8%. The base case assumes 8.4% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $244.47 to $345.03. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Undervalued?
At $323.1, HLT trades about 10.8% above the base-case intrinsic value estimate, a modest premium. By this model the price sits within a normal band, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Strong Brand Recognition
Hilton's globally recognized brands foster customer loyalty and command premium pricing. This established reputation reduces customer acquisition costs and drives repeat business.
↑Extensive Global Footprint
A vast network of hotels across diverse markets provides significant operational scale and diversification. This broad presence offers travelers consistent experiences worldwide.
↑Loyalty Program Power
Hilton Honors offers substantial benefits, creating high switching costs for members. The program incentivizes direct bookings and deepens customer relationships.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Economic Downturns Impact Travel
Recessions and economic uncertainty significantly reduce discretionary spending on travel and lodging. This directly affects occupancy rates and revenue.
↓Geopolitical Instability and Health Crises
Global events like pandemics or political unrest can severely disrupt international travel. This leads to cancellations and reduced demand for hotels.
↓Intense Industry Competition
The lodging industry is highly competitive with numerous global and regional players. New entrants and aggressive pricing can challenge market share.
Base case
HLT base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$291.55
Margin of safety
-10.8%
Expected annual return
-2.0%
Base case assumptions: 8.4% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-30.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the HLT valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for HLTCompany Overview
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Spark by Hilton, Hilton Grand Vacations, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, AutoCamp, and Hilton Honors brand names. The company has operations in North America, South America, and Central America, including various Caribbean nations; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and the Asia Pacific. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Financial Metrics — HLT Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$55.00
FCF/Share (TTM)
$8.84
ROIC (TTM)
-49.4%
ROE (TTM)
-28.1%
P/FCF
36.2x
EV/EBITDA
37.4x
FCF Yield
2.76%
Debt/Equity
n/m
Based on trailing twelve-month data, HLT shows a free cash flow per share of $8.84 and a ROIC of -49.4%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 36.2x and FCF yield of 2.76% are important context metrics when evaluating HLT's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of HLT?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. currently generates $8.84 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $323.10, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is HLT undervalued?
HLT trades at a P/FCF ratio of 36.2x with a free cash flow yield of 2.76%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether HLT is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value HLT stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($8.84) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Travel Lodging industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting HLT's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of -2.12x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to HLT?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Travel Lodging trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. HLT's ROIC of -49.4% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect HLT stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For HLT, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -2.12x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 37.4x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See HLT PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value HLT with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-30. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.