Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Travel Lodging · NYSE
Current Price
$348.18
Intrinsic Value
$413.08
+15.7% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Strong Brand Recognition
Hilton's globally recognized brands foster customer loyalty and command premium pricing. This established reputation attracts both travelers and hotel owners, creating a virtuous cycle.
↑Extensive Global Footprint
A vast network of hotels across diverse markets provides significant operational scale and diversification. This broad presence allows Hilton to capture demand in various economic conditions and geographies.
↑Loyalty Program Power
Hilton Honors is a powerful engine for customer retention and repeat business. The program's benefits incentivize guests to choose Hilton properties, driving consistent occupancy.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intense Industry Competition
The travel lodging sector is highly competitive, with numerous established players and emerging disruptors. This can pressure pricing and market share.
↓Economic Sensitivity
Hilton's performance is closely tied to global economic conditions and discretionary consumer spending. Downturns can significantly impact travel demand and revenue.
↓Labor Market Volatility
Attracting and retaining qualified staff is crucial for service quality. Labor shortages or rising wage costs can impact operational efficiency and profitability.
Base case
HLT base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for HLT estimates an intrinsic value of about $413.08 per share, against a current price of $348.18. The model assumes 15.2% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 30x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$413.08
Margin of safety
+15.7%
Expected annual return
+3.5%
Base case assumptions: 15.2% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-15.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the HLT valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for HLTCompany Overview
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. operates as a prominent global hospitality enterprise, focusing on the management, franchising, and leasing of hotel and resort properties. Its business model is primarily structured around two main divisions: the Management and Franchise segment, and the Ownership segment. A significant part of its activities includes directly overseeing hotel operations and permitting the use of its distinctive brand names, trademarks, and service marks through licensing agreements. Hilton boasts an extensive and varied portfolio of hotel brands, encompassing categories such as luxury, lifestyle, full-service, focused-service, all-suites, and timeshare properties. This comprehensive collection features renowned names like Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Spark by Hilton, Hilton Grand Vacations, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, AutoCamp, and Hilton Honors. Globally, the company's operational footprint covers vast regions including North, South, and Central America (with a strong presence in numerous Caribbean nations), alongside Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the entire Asia Pacific area. Established in 1919, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in McLean, Virginia.
Financial Metrics — HLT Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$53.63
FCF/Share (TTM)
$9.44
ROIC (TTM)
16.9%
ROE (TTM)
-29.6%
P/FCF
36.7x
EV/EBITDA
30.5x
FCF Yield
2.73%
Debt/Equity
n/m
Based on trailing twelve-month data, HLT shows a free cash flow per share of $9.44 and a ROIC of 16.9%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 36.7x and FCF yield of 2.73% are important context metrics when evaluating HLT's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of HLT?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. currently generates $9.44 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $348.18, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is HLT undervalued?
HLT trades at a P/FCF ratio of 36.7x with a free cash flow yield of 2.73%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether HLT is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value HLT stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($9.44) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Travel Lodging industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting HLT's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of -2.21x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to HLT?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Travel Lodging trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. HLT's ROIC of 16.9% indicates strong capital efficiency, which supports higher growth assumptions in the DCF model.
How does WACC affect HLT stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For HLT, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -2.21x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 30.5x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See HLT PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value HLT with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-15. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.