FedEx Corporation (FDX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Integrated Freight & Logistics · NYSE
Current Price
$308.61
Intrinsic Value
$306.19
-0.8% margin of safety
What Is FedEx Corporation's Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-29, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of FedEx Corporation (FDX) at $306.19 per share, compared with a market price of $308.61, a margin of safety of -0.8%. The base case assumes 2.9% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $238.86 to $384.46. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is FedEx Corporation (FDX) Undervalued?
At $308.61, FDX trades about 0.8% above the base-case intrinsic value estimate, a modest premium. By this model the price sits within a normal band, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Extensive Global Network
FedEx operates a vast, integrated network of transportation and logistics infrastructure worldwide. This physical presence creates significant barriers to entry for new competitors.
↑Brand Recognition and Trust
The FedEx brand is globally recognized for reliability and speed in package delivery. This strong reputation fosters customer loyalty and reduces perceived risk for shippers.
↑Economies of Scale
The sheer volume of packages processed allows FedEx to achieve significant cost efficiencies in operations, fleet management, and technology investment. This scale is difficult for smaller players to replicate.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Margin Compression and Cost Recovery
Recent reports indicate challenges in recovering costs and achieving margin recovery, despite efficiency initiatives. This suggests underlying operational or pricing pressures impacting profitability.
↓Regulatory and Legal Challenges
The EEOC lawsuit alleging discrimination against blind workers highlights potential legal and reputational risks. Such issues can lead to significant fines and operational disruptions.
↓Divestiture of Supply Chain Unit
The sale of the Supply Chain unit to CMA CGM indicates a strategic shift and potential reduction in service breadth. This could impact integrated offerings and future growth avenues.
Base case
FDX base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$306.19
Margin of safety
-0.8%
Expected annual return
-0.2%
Base case assumptions: 2.9% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 14x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-29.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the FDX valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for FedEx Corporation respond.
Open DCF Calculator for FDXCompany Overview
FedEx Corporation is a prominent global entity that delivers an extensive array of services encompassing transportation, e-commerce solutions, and diverse business support, catering to clients both within the United States and across international borders. Its operational structure is divided into several key segments: The FedEx Express division specializes in expedited shipping, offering rapid package and freight delivery, crucial time-sensitive logistics, and comprehensive cross-border, technological, and e-commerce transportation services. FedEx Ground focuses on reliable, scheduled delivery services for both commercial clients and individual households. The FedEx Freight unit manages less-than-truckload (LTL) cargo shipments, supported by a significant infrastructure that, as of May 31, 2022, included approximately 30,000 vehicles and 400 service centers. FedEx Services provides essential internal support functions across the company, such as sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer and technical assistance, billing, collections, and other vital administrative operations. Finally, the Corporate, Other, and Eliminations segment broadens FedEx's offerings to include integrated supply chain management, specialized transportation, customs brokerage, global ocean and air freight forwarding, document and business services, and convenient retail access points for its package delivery operations. Established in 1971, FedEx Corporation maintains its headquarters in Memphis, Tennessee.
Financial Metrics — FDX Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$393.03
FCF/Share (TTM)
$21.23
ROIC (TTM)
5.7%
ROE (TTM)
15.1%
P/FCF
14.3x
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
FCF Yield
7.01%
Debt/Equity
1.36x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, FDX shows a free cash flow per share of $21.23 and a ROIC of 5.7%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 14.3x and FCF yield of 7.01% are important context metrics when evaluating FDX's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of FDX?
FedEx Corporation currently generates $21.23 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $308.61, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is FDX undervalued?
FDX trades at a P/FCF ratio of 14.3x with a free cash flow yield of 7.01%. A low P/FCF means investors are paying less per dollar of free cash flow; whether that is cheap depends on the company's growth, cyclicality, and capital intensity. However, whether FDX is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value FDX stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on FedEx Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($21.23) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Integrated Freight & Logistics industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting FDX's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.36x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to FDX?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For FedEx Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Integrated Freight & Logistics trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. FDX's ROIC of 5.7% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect FDX stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For FDX, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 9.7x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See FDX PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Industrials valuationsDCF and P/E value FDX with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-29. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.