Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Travel Services · NASDAQ
Current Price
$235.57
Intrinsic Value
Outside reliable range
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Vast Brand Portfolio
Expedia owns multiple well-known travel brands like Expedia.com, Hotels.com, and Vrbo. This diverse portfolio captures different customer segments and booking preferences.
↑Network Effects in Marketplaces
More travelers attract more suppliers (hotels, airlines), and more suppliers attract more travelers. This creates a virtuous cycle, making it harder for new entrants to compete.
↑Data and AI Capabilities
Expedia leverages vast amounts of traveler data to personalize offerings and improve booking experiences. Recent research highlights traveler demand for full trip planning, an area where AI can provide a competitive edge.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intense Competition
The online travel agency market is highly competitive with players like Booking Holdings and direct bookings from airlines and hotels. This can lead to price wars and margin pressure.
↓Dependence on Third-Party Suppliers
Expedia relies heavily on airlines, hotels, and car rental companies for inventory. Any disruption in these partnerships or changes in their distribution strategies can impact bookings.
↓Economic Sensitivity
Travel spending is discretionary and highly sensitive to economic downturns, inflation, and geopolitical events. Macroeconomic shocks can significantly reduce consumer demand for travel services.
Base case
EXPE base case valuation
Base case assumptions: 17.9% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 6x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-15.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the EXPE valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Expedia Group, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for EXPECompany Overview
Expedia Group, Inc. operates as a leading online travel company, serving customers both within the United States and across international markets. The enterprise structures its extensive operations into three primary divisions: Retail, Business-to-Business (B2B), and Trivago. Its comprehensive brand portfolio caters to diverse travel needs. Key retail brands include Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel platform offering localized websites; Hotels.com, specializing in the marketing and distribution of lodging accommodations; and Vrbo, an online marketplace dedicated to alternative accommodation options. Other prominent travel booking websites under its umbrella are Orbitz, Travelocity, and CheapTickets. For the EMEA region, ebookers functions as an online travel agent, presenting travelers with a broad spectrum of choices, while Hotwire provides various travel booking services. Complementing these are CarRentals.com, an online car rental booking service; Classic Vacations, a specialist in luxury travel experiences; and Expedia Cruise, which guides travelers in booking cruises. In the B2B sphere, Expedia Partner Solutions offers travel and non-travel vertical services to a wide array of clients, including corporate travel management firms, airlines, travel agents, online retailers, and financial institutions. Egencia, another key brand, focuses specifically on delivering corporate travel management services. Further extending its reach, the portfolio also features Trivago, a hotel metasearch website that refers users to online travel companies and service providers, alongside Expedia Group Media Solutions. The company also provides online travel services through several regional brands like Wotif.com, lastminute.com.au, travel.com.au, Wotif.co.nz, and lastminute.co.nz. Beyond brand-specific offerings, Expedia Group, Inc. delivers loyalty programs, a wide array of hotel and alternative accommodation choices, and advertising and media services. Serving both individual leisure travelers and corporate clients, the company was initially founded as Expedia, Inc. in 1996. It subsequently rebranded to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018, and its headquarters are located in Seattle, Washington.
Financial Metrics — EXPE Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$124.53
FCF/Share (TTM)
$38.46
ROIC (TTM)
28.0%
ROE (TTM)
147.6%
P/FCF
5.8x
EV/EBITDA
7.8x
FCF Yield
17.37%
Debt/Equity
8.17x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, EXPE shows a free cash flow per share of $38.46 and a ROIC of 28.0%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 5.8x and FCF yield of 17.37% are important context metrics when evaluating EXPE's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of EXPE?
Expedia Group, Inc. currently generates $38.46 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $235.57, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is EXPE undervalued?
EXPE trades at a P/FCF ratio of 5.8x with a free cash flow yield of 17.37%. This relatively low P/FCF may suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to its cash generation. However, whether EXPE is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value EXPE stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Expedia Group, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($38.46) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Travel Services industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting EXPE's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 8.17x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to EXPE?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Expedia Group, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Travel Services trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. EXPE's ROIC of 28.0% indicates strong capital efficiency, which supports higher growth assumptions in the DCF model.
How does WACC affect EXPE stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For EXPE, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 8.17x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 7.8x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See EXPE PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value EXPE with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-15. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.