Integrated Freight & Logistics · NYSE
当前价格
$94.78
内在价值
使用下方计算器估算
对 United Parcel Service, Inc. 运行完整的 DCF 分析，自动填充基本面数据，可调节假设参数，含敏感性热力图。
United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, transportation, logistics, and related services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery of letters, documents, small packages, and palletized freight through air and ground services in the United States. The International Package segment provides guaranteed day and time-definite international shipping services in Europe, the Asia Pacific, Canada and Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East, and Africa. This segment offers guaranteed time-definite express options. The company also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, distribution and post-sales, and mail and consulting services in approximately 200 countries and territories. In addition, it offers truckload brokerage services; supply chain solutions to the healthcare and life sciences industry; shipping, visibility, and billing technologies; and financial and insurance services. The company operates a fleet of approximately 121,000 package cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles; and owns 59,000 containers that are used to transport cargo in its aircraft. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
ROIC (TTM)
10.6%
ROE (TTM)
35.1%
FCF Yield
5.92%
基于过去 12 个月的数据，UPS 每股自由现金流为 N/A，投入资本回报率（ROIC）为 10.6%，这些是使用 DCF 方法进行股票估值的关键输入。P/FCF 比率为 N/A，FCF 收益率为 5.92%，是评估 UPS 相对估值的重要参考指标。
UPS 的内在价值取决于未来增长率、折现率（WACC）和终值假设。DCF 模型将预期自由现金流折现回现值——WACC 的小幅变化可能导致估算偏移 20% 以上，因此敏感性分析至关重要。
UPS 是否被低估取决于 DCF 内在价值与当前市价 $94.78 的比较。正的安全边际（内在价值高于市价）暗示潜在低估，但置信度取决于增长率和折现率假设的可靠性。
对 United Parcel Service, Inc. 进行 DCF 估值的步骤：(1) 以过去 12 个月每股自由现金流为基础，(2) 根据Integrated Freight & Logistics行业趋势和公司基本面预测未来 5-10 年的 FCF 增长，(3) 选择反映 UPS 风险的折现率（WACC），(4) 加上预测期之后的终值。
DCF（折现现金流）根据公司未来的现金产生能力估算其当前价值。对于 United Parcel Service, Inc.，这意味着预测Integrated Freight & Logistics在未来 5-10 年能产生多少自由现金流，再折现到今天的价值。UPS 的 ROIC 为 10.6%，显示中等水平的资本回报。
WACC（加权平均资本成本）是 DCF 模型中的折现率——反映投资者要求的最低回报。对于 UPS，资本结构和股权风险溢价决定了 WACC。WACC 每提高 1%，内在价值通常下降 10-15%。
