Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Industrial - Machinery · NYSE
Current Price
$441.90
Intrinsic Value
$393.02
-12.4% margin of safety
What Is Rockwell Automation, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-10-07, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) at $393.02 per share, compared with a market price of $441.9, a margin of safety of -12.4%. The base case assumes 5.7% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $329.2 to $465.67. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) Undervalued?
At $441.9, ROK trades about 12.4% above the base-case intrinsic value estimate, a modest premium. By this model the price sits within a normal band, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Deep Industrial Ecosystem Integration
Rockwell's extensive integration with industrial machinery and control systems creates high switching costs for customers. Their solutions are deeply embedded in manufacturing processes.
↑Brand Reputation and Trust
A long-standing reputation for reliability and performance in critical industrial applications builds significant customer trust. This brand equity is hard for competitors to replicate.
↑Proprietary Software and Hardware
Rockwell's specialized software and hardware platforms offer unique functionalities. This proprietary technology creates a barrier to entry and lock-in for clients.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities
As industrial systems become more connected, the risk of cyberattacks on Rockwell's integrated solutions increases. A major breach could damage reputation and trust.
↓Economic Downturns Impacting Capital Expenditure
Industrial machinery sales are cyclical and sensitive to economic conditions. Recessions can significantly reduce customer spending on new automation equipment.
↓Competition from Cloud-Native Players
Newer, agile competitors focused on cloud-based industrial IoT and analytics could challenge Rockwell's market share. They may offer more flexible and cost-effective solutions.
Base case
ROK base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$393.02
Margin of safety
-12.4%
Expected annual return
-2.3%
Base case assumptions: 5.7% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-10-07.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the ROK valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Rockwell Automation, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for ROKCompany Overview
Rockwell Automation, Inc., established in 1903 and headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is a global leader in providing industrial automation and digital transformation solutions. The company's operations are segmented into three key areas: Intelligent Devices, Software & Control, and Lifecycle Services. The Intelligent Devices segment offers various hardware products such as drives, motion control systems, safety and sensing equipment, industrial components, and customized configurations. The Software & Control division provides essential control and visualization software and accompanying hardware, information management platforms, digital twin and simulation tools, and network and cybersecurity infrastructure. The Lifecycle Services segment completes its offering with expert consulting, professional implementation, and ongoing connected and maintenance support. Rockwell Automation distributes its comprehensive array of hardware, software, and services worldwide through a network of independent distributors, complemented by its direct sales force. Its extensive clientele spans diverse sectors, including discrete manufacturing (like automotive, semiconductors, and logistics), general industries (such as printing, marine, and aerospace), hybrid markets (encompassing food & beverage, life sciences, and eco-industrial applications like water management and renewable energy), and process industries (including oil & gas, mining, and chemicals).
Financial Metrics — ROK Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$80.04
FCF/Share (TTM)
$13.42
ROIC (TTM)
19.7%
ROE (TTM)
33.3%
P/FCF
32.7x
EV/EBITDA
29.5x
FCF Yield
3.06%
Debt/Equity
1.03x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, ROK shows a free cash flow per share of $13.42 and a ROIC of 19.7%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 32.7x and FCF yield of 3.06% are important context metrics when evaluating ROK's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of ROK?
Rockwell Automation, Inc. currently generates $13.42 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $441.90, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is ROK undervalued?
ROK trades at a P/FCF ratio of 32.7x with a free cash flow yield of 3.06%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether ROK is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value ROK stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Rockwell Automation, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($13.42) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Industrial - Machinery industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting ROK's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.03x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to ROK?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Rockwell Automation, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Industrial - Machinery trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. ROK's ROIC of 19.7% reflects how efficiently the company converts invested capital into profit.
How does WACC affect ROK stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For ROK, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.03x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 29.5x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See ROK PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Industrials valuationsDCF and P/E value ROK with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-07. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.