Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Auto - Manufacturers · NASDAQ
Current Price
$380.68
Intrinsic Value
Outside reliable range
What Is Tesla, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
The base-case DCF model produces an intrinsic value estimate for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) that falls outside its reliable range, so treat any single number with extra caution. This usually happens with unusual cash flow patterns or rapid recent changes in the business.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Undervalued?
Because the model output for TSLA is outside the reliable range, no undervalued or overvalued read is given here. Use the calculator below to test your own assumptions instead.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Brand Loyalty and EV Leadership
Tesla's strong brand and early mover advantage in EVs foster significant customer loyalty. This allows for premium pricing and sustained demand.
↑Supercharger Network Dominance
The proprietary Supercharger network creates high switching costs for EV owners. It offers unparalleled convenience and reliability, a key differentiator.
↑Data and Software Ecosystem
Vast amounts of real-world driving data enhance Autopilot and FSD capabilities. This creates a virtuous cycle of improvement and user lock-in.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Execution Risk on New Ventures
Scaling Cybercab and Optimus requires significant capital and operational expertise. Delays or failures in these ambitious projects could impact growth.
↓Dependence on Key Personnel
Elon Musk's leadership is central to Tesla's vision and innovation. His departure or distraction could significantly disrupt the company.
↓Geopolitical and Supply Chain Volatility
Global political tensions and supply chain disruptions can impact production and raw material costs. This affects profitability and delivery timelines.
Base case
TSLA base case valuation
Base case assumptions: 13.0% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-10-06.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the TSLA valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Tesla, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for TSLACompany Overview
Tesla, Inc. operates globally, specializing in the creation, production, and distribution of electric vehicles, alongside comprehensive energy generation and storage solutions. Its market reach extends across the United States, China, and various other international regions. The company's operations are primarily divided into two main segments: its Automotive business and its Energy Generation and Storage division. Within its Automotive division, Tesla not only provides a range of electric cars but also generates revenue from selling automotive regulatory credits. This segment further encompasses a variety of post-sale services, including non-warranty vehicle support, sales of pre-owned vehicles, various retail products, and car insurance offerings. Customers can acquire Tesla's sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct sales, purchases of used vehicles, or via in-app upgrades often facilitated by the extensive Tesla Supercharger network. The company supports these acquisitions with financing and leasing options. Furthermore, it ensures vehicle upkeep through its proprietary service centers and a fleet of mobile technicians, complemented by both standard and extended vehicle warranty programs. The Energy Generation and Storage segment focuses on the development, manufacturing, setup, sale, and rental of solar power systems and energy storage products, along with associated services. This caters to a diverse clientele, spanning residential users, commercial enterprises, industrial entities, and public utilities. Distribution channels include Tesla's online platform, physical stores, galleries, and a network of collaborative partners. The company also offers servicing and repairs for its energy products, including warranty support, and provides multiple financing avenues for those investing in its solar solutions. Founded in 2003, the corporation was initially named Tesla Motors, Inc., before officially rebranding to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Austin, Texas.
Financial Metrics — TSLA Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$32.01
FCF/Share (TTM)
$1.78
ROIC (TTM)
3.0%
ROE (TTM)
4.6%
P/FCF
260.9x
EV/EBITDA
124.5x
FCF Yield
0.38%
Debt/Equity
0.11x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, TSLA shows a free cash flow per share of $1.78 and a ROIC of 3.0%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 260.9x and FCF yield of 0.38% are important context metrics when evaluating TSLA's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of TSLA?
Tesla, Inc. currently generates $1.78 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $380.68, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is TSLA undervalued?
TSLA trades at a P/FCF ratio of 260.9x with a free cash flow yield of 0.38%. A high P/FCF means investors are paying more per dollar of free cash flow, which usually reflects expectations of future growth. However, whether TSLA is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value TSLA stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Tesla, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($1.78) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Auto - Manufacturers industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting TSLA's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.11x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to TSLA?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Tesla, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Auto - Manufacturers trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. TSLA's ROIC of 3.0% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect TSLA stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For TSLA, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 124.5x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See TSLA PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value TSLA with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-06. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.