Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Restaurants · NYSE
Current Price
$154.65
Intrinsic Value
$209.46
+26.2% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Powerful Brand Portfolio
Yum! Brands owns iconic quick-service restaurant brands like KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell. These globally recognized names drive significant customer loyalty and demand.
↑Franchise Model Efficiency
The company's asset-light franchise model allows for rapid expansion and capital efficiency. This structure minimizes operational burdens and maximizes scalability across diverse markets.
↑Global Market Penetration
Yum! Brands has established a vast international presence, particularly in emerging markets. This diversification reduces reliance on any single economy and taps into high-growth regions.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intense Industry Competition
The quick-service restaurant sector is highly competitive, with numerous players vying for consumer attention. This can pressure pricing and market share for Yum!'s brands.
↓Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Disruptions in global supply chains can impact ingredient availability and costs for Yum!'s franchisees. This can lead to operational challenges and affect profitability.
↓Changing Consumer Preferences
Evolving consumer tastes and dietary trends can pose a challenge. Yum! must continuously innovate its menu and offerings to remain relevant and appealing.
Base case
YUM base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for YUM estimates an intrinsic value of about $209.46 per share, against a current price of $154.65. The model assumes 12.9% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 26x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$209.46
Margin of safety
+26.2%
Expected annual return
+6.3%
Base case assumptions: 12.9% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 26x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-15.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the YUM valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Yum! Brands, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for YUMCompany Overview
YUM! Brands, Inc. (YUM) is a leading global quick-service restaurant enterprise that focuses on the creation, management, and franchising of its restaurant concepts internationally. Its business is organized into four main divisions: KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and The Habit Burger Grill. The company operates establishments under these well-known brands, offering diverse food categories such as chicken, pizza, Mexican-style dishes, and made-to-order chargrilled burgers and sandwiches, among other food products. As of December 31, 2021, YUM! Brands boasted a significant worldwide presence, comprising 26,934 KFC outlets, 18,381 Pizza Hut locations, 7,791 Taco Bell restaurants, and 318 The Habit Burger Grill units, spread across roughly 157 countries and territories. The company, which maintains its headquarters in Louisville, Kentucky, was established in 1997. It was formerly known as TRICON Global Restaurants, Inc., before officially adopting the name YUM! Brands, Inc. in May 2002.
Financial Metrics — YUM Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$30.63
FCF/Share (TTM)
$5.95
ROIC (TTM)
31.4%
ROE (TTM)
-23.3%
P/FCF
25.8x
EV/EBITDA
19.0x
FCF Yield
3.87%
Debt/Equity
n/m
Based on trailing twelve-month data, YUM shows a free cash flow per share of $5.95 and a ROIC of 31.4%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 25.8x and FCF yield of 3.87% are important context metrics when evaluating YUM's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of YUM?
Yum! Brands, Inc. currently generates $5.95 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $154.65, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is YUM undervalued?
YUM trades at a P/FCF ratio of 25.8x with a free cash flow yield of 3.87%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether YUM is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value YUM stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Yum! Brands, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($5.95) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Restaurants industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting YUM's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of -1.64x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to YUM?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Yum! Brands, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Restaurants trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. YUM's ROIC of 31.4% indicates strong capital efficiency, which supports higher growth assumptions in the DCF model.
How does WACC affect YUM stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For YUM, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -1.64x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 19.0x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See YUM PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value YUM with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-15. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.