NOV Inc. (NOV) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · NYSE
Current Price
$21.13
Intrinsic Value
$35.68
+40.8% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Integrated Solutions Provider
NOV offers a comprehensive suite of equipment and services across the oil and gas lifecycle. This integration creates sticky customer relationships and operational efficiencies.
↑Technological Innovation
The company invests in R&D to develop advanced drilling and production technologies. This allows them to offer differentiated solutions that enhance efficiency and safety for clients.
↑Global Service Network
NOV's extensive global footprint enables them to provide timely support and maintenance worldwide. This reach is crucial for offshore and remote operations.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Commodity Price Volatility
Earnings are highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil and gas prices. Downturns can significantly reduce demand for NOV's equipment and services.
↓Geopolitical Disruptions
Recent Middle East disruptions impacted operations, highlighting vulnerability to regional conflicts. These events can disrupt supply chains and project timelines.
↓Energy Transition Headwinds
The global shift towards renewable energy sources poses a long-term threat to demand for oil and gas equipment. NOV must adapt its offerings to this evolving landscape.
Base case
NOV base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for NOV estimates an intrinsic value of about $35.68 per share, against a current price of $21.13. The model assumes 13.8% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 10x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$35.68
Margin of safety
+40.8%
Expected annual return
+11.0%
Base case assumptions: 13.8% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 10x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the NOV valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for NOV Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for NOVCompany Overview
NOV Inc. is a global leader in designing, manufacturing, and marketing essential systems, components, and products for the oil and gas drilling and production industries, as well as for industrial and renewable energy sectors worldwide. The company's operations are divided into three core segments: Wellbore Technologies, Completion & Production Solutions, and Rig Technologies. The Wellbore Technologies segment provides a range of offerings including solids control and waste management equipment, portable power generation units, drill and wired pipes, advanced drilling optimization and automation services, and comprehensive tubular inspection, repair, and coating services. This segment also supplies instrumentation, measuring and monitoring tools, downhole and fishing tools, steerable drilling technologies, and drill bits. The Completion & Production Solutions segment specializes in equipment and technologies for hydraulic fracture stimulation, encompassing downhole multistage fracturing tools, pressure pumping trucks, blenders, sanders, hydration and injection units, flowlines, and manifolds. They also offer coiled tubing units, wireline units and tools, and various connections and liner hangers. For onshore production, solutions include composite pipe, surface transfer and progressive cavity pumps, and artificial lift systems. Offshore production is supported by floating production systems and subsea production technologies. Additionally, this segment manufactures industrial pumps and mixers. The Rig Technologies segment focuses on drilling rig infrastructure and machinery. This includes substructures, derricks, masts, cranes, jacking systems, and sophisticated pipe lifting, racking, rotating, and assembly systems. They also supply mud pumps, pressure control equipment, drives and generators, and integrated rig instrumentation and control systems. Furthermore, this segment provides mooring, anchor, and deck handling machinery, specialized equipment components for offshore wind construction vessels, and complete pipelay and construction systems. Beyond product sales, NOV Inc. offers vital after-sales support, such as spare parts, repair services, and rental options. Their comprehensive service portfolio includes remote equipment monitoring, expert technical support, on-site field service, and extensive customer training programs. Founded in 1862 and based in Houston, Texas, the company was formerly known as National Oilwell Varco, Inc. before officially changing its name to NOV Inc. in January 2021.
Financial Metrics — NOV Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$24.08
FCF/Share (TTM)
$2.03
ROIC (TTM)
1.7%
ROE (TTM)
1.4%
P/FCF
10.3x
EV/EBITDA
11.7x
FCF Yield
9.68%
Debt/Equity
0.38x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, NOV shows a free cash flow per share of $2.03 and a ROIC of 1.7%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 10.3x and FCF yield of 9.68% are important context metrics when evaluating NOV's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of NOV?
NOV Inc. currently generates $2.03 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $21.13, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is NOV undervalued?
NOV trades at a P/FCF ratio of 10.3x with a free cash flow yield of 9.68%. This relatively low P/FCF may suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to its cash generation. However, whether NOV is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value NOV stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on NOV Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($2.03) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Oil & Gas Equipment & Services industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting NOV's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.38x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to NOV?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For NOV Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Oil & Gas Equipment & Services trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. NOV's ROIC of 1.7% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect NOV stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For NOV, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 11.7x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See NOV PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Energy valuationsDCF and P/E value NOV with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.