ConocoPhillips (COP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · NYSE
Current Price
$147.96
Intrinsic Value
$83.65
-76.9% margin of safety
What Is ConocoPhillips's Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-10-27, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips (COP) at $83.65 per share, compared with a market price of $147.96, a margin of safety of -76.9%. The base case assumes 3.6% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $73.23 to $95.97. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is ConocoPhillips (COP) Undervalued?
At the current price of $147.96, COP trades above the base-case intrinsic value estimate by a meaningful margin. By this model the stock looks expensive, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Vast, Low-Cost Resource Base
ConocoPhillips possesses extensive, high-quality reserves in prolific basins. This allows for efficient extraction and a lower cost structure compared to many competitors.
↑Operational Expertise and Scale
Decades of experience in complex exploration and production provide deep technical knowledge. Their large operational footprint enables economies of scale in development and infrastructure.
↑Disciplined Capital Allocation
A focus on shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, coupled with prudent investment in high-return projects, enhances long-term value. This attracts and retains investor capital.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Commodity Price Volatility
Oil and gas prices are inherently cyclical and subject to rapid fluctuations. Significant price drops can severely impact profitability and cash flows.
↓Regulatory and Environmental Scrutiny
Increasingly stringent environmental regulations and potential carbon taxes can raise operating costs and limit future exploration. Permitting and compliance are ongoing challenges.
↓Execution Risk on Large Projects
Developing large-scale oil and gas projects involves significant capital expenditure and technical complexity. Delays or cost overruns can negatively affect returns.
Base case
COP base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$83.65
Margin of safety
-76.9%
Expected annual return
-10.8%
Base case assumptions: 3.6% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 17.66x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-10-27.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the COP valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for ConocoPhillips respond.
Open DCF Calculator for COPCompany Overview
ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its primary operations are centered on both conventional and tight oil formations, shale gas, heavy crude, LNG developments, and oil sands projects. The company's extensive portfolio includes unconventional resources located in North America; established conventional assets spanning North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; numerous LNG ventures; oil sands properties within Canada; and a significant inventory of potential conventional and unconventional exploration opportunities. ConocoPhillips was established in 1917 and its corporate headquarters are situated in Houston, Texas.
Financial Metrics — COP Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$52.20
FCF/Share (TTM)
$8.29
ROIC (TTM)
7.9%
ROE (TTM)
14.3%
P/FCF
17.9x
EV/EBITDA
7.0x
FCF Yield
5.66%
Debt/Equity
0.36x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, COP shows a free cash flow per share of $8.29 and a ROIC of 7.9%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 17.9x and FCF yield of 5.66% are important context metrics when evaluating COP's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of COP?
ConocoPhillips currently generates $8.29 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $147.96, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is COP undervalued?
COP trades at a P/FCF ratio of 17.9x with a free cash flow yield of 5.66%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether COP is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value COP stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on ConocoPhillips: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($8.29) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting COP's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.36x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to COP?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For ConocoPhillips, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Oil & Gas Exploration & Production trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. COP's ROIC of 7.9% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect COP stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For COP, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 7.0x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See COP PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Energy valuationsDCF and P/E value COP with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-27. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.