Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · NYSE
Current Price
$128.25
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
Run a full DCF analysis on ConocoPhillips with auto-filled fundamentals, adjustable assumptions, and sensitivity heatmap.
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. It primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of conventional and unconventional exploration prospects. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
ROIC (TTM)
6.7%
ROE (TTM)
12.3%
FCF Yield
10.73%
Based on trailing twelve-month data, COP shows a free cash flow per share of N/A and a ROIC of 6.7%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of N/A and FCF yield of 10.73% are important context metrics when evaluating COP's stock valuation relative to peers.
The intrinsic value of COP depends on assumptions about future growth rate, discount rate (WACC), and terminal value. A DCF model discounts projected free cash flows back to present value — small changes in WACC can shift the estimate by 20% or more, which is why sensitivity analysis is essential.
Whether COP is undervalued depends on comparing the DCF-derived intrinsic value to the current market price of $128.25. A positive margin of safety (intrinsic value above market price) suggests potential undervaluation, but the degree of confidence depends on the reliability of your growth and discount rate assumptions.
To perform a DCF valuation on ConocoPhillips: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting COP's risk profile, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For ConocoPhillips, this means projecting how much free cash flow the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production will produce over the next 5-10 years, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. COP's ROIC of 6.7% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For COP, the capital structure and equity risk premium determine WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%.
