ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · NYSE
Current Price
$116.98
Intrinsic Value
$179.15
+34.7% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Strategic LNG Expansion
ConocoPhillips' significant investments in LNG projects, like Port Arthur and Equatorial Guinea, position it for long-term growth and diversification beyond traditional oil production.
↑Unhedged Upstream Advantage
The company's unhedged upstream strategy allows it to fully capitalize on rising oil prices, enhancing profitability and cash flow generation during favorable market conditions.
↑Operational Scale and Efficiency
As a major player in oil and gas exploration and production, ConocoPhillips benefits from economies of scale and established operational expertise, driving cost efficiencies.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Commodity Price Volatility
The company's profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuations in global oil and natural gas prices, which can be unpredictable and impact revenue streams.
↓Regulatory and Environmental Scrutiny
The energy sector faces increasing regulatory oversight and environmental concerns, potentially leading to higher compliance costs and operational restrictions.
↓Geopolitical Instability
Operations in various global regions expose ConocoPhillips to geopolitical risks, including political unrest, sanctions, and supply chain disruptions.
Base case
COP base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for COP estimates an intrinsic value of about $179.15 per share, against a current price of $116.98. The model assumes 10.3% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 9x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$179.15
Margin of safety
+34.7%
Expected annual return
+8.9%
Base case assumptions: 10.3% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 9x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the COP valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for ConocoPhillips respond.
Open DCF Calculator for COPCompany Overview
ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its primary operations are centered on both conventional and tight oil formations, shale gas, heavy crude, LNG developments, and oil sands projects. The company's extensive portfolio includes unconventional resources located in North America; established conventional assets spanning North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; numerous LNG ventures; oil sands properties within Canada; and a significant inventory of potential conventional and unconventional exploration opportunities. ConocoPhillips was established in 1917 and its corporate headquarters are situated in Houston, Texas.
Financial Metrics — COP Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$47.64
FCF/Share (TTM)
$12.57
ROIC (TTM)
6.1%
ROE (TTM)
11.3%
P/FCF
9.3x
EV/EBITDA
6.5x
FCF Yield
10.79%
Debt/Equity
0.36x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, COP shows a free cash flow per share of $12.57 and a ROIC of 6.1%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 9.3x and FCF yield of 10.79% are important context metrics when evaluating COP's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of COP?
ConocoPhillips currently generates $12.57 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $116.98, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is COP undervalued?
COP trades at a P/FCF ratio of 9.3x with a free cash flow yield of 10.79%. This relatively low P/FCF may suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to its cash generation. However, whether COP is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value COP stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on ConocoPhillips: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($12.57) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting COP's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.36x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to COP?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For ConocoPhillips, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Oil & Gas Exploration & Production trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. COP's ROIC of 6.1% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect COP stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For COP, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 6.5x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See COP PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Energy valuationsDCF and P/E value COP with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.