Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Oil & Gas Integrated · NYSE
Current Price
$156.80
Intrinsic Value
$84.62
-85.3% margin of safety
What Is Exxon Mobil Corporation's Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-29, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) at $84.62 per share, compared with a market price of $156.8, a margin of safety of -85.3%. The base case assumes 1.7% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $74.05 to $97.13. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Undervalued?
At the current price of $156.8, XOM trades above the base-case intrinsic value estimate by a meaningful margin. By this model the stock looks expensive, though faster growth than assumed would change the picture.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Massive Scale and Integrated Operations
XOM's vast global infrastructure and integrated value chain, from exploration to refining, create significant cost advantages and operational efficiencies.
↑Technological Expertise and R&D
Decades of experience in complex extraction and refining technologies, coupled with substantial R&D investment, provide a competitive edge in efficiency and discovery.
↑Access to Prime Reserves
Control over large, high-quality, and often long-life oil and gas reserves globally provides a foundational advantage in supply and future production.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Commodity Price Volatility
XOM's profitability is inherently tied to fluctuating global oil and gas prices, which can be influenced by geopolitical events and supply/demand dynamics.
↓Geopolitical Instability
Operations in diverse regions expose XOM to risks from political unrest, sanctions, and changes in national energy policies.
↓Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Concerns
Increasing investor and public scrutiny on ESG performance can lead to reputational damage, divestment, and increased compliance costs.
Base case
XOM base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$84.62
Margin of safety
-85.3%
Expected annual return
-11.6%
Base case assumptions: 1.7% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-29.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the XOM valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Exxon Mobil Corporation respond.
Open DCF Calculator for XOMCompany Overview
Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy firm that undertakes the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources across its domestic operations and international territories. The company organizes its vast activities into three primary divisions: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical. Beyond resource acquisition, Exxon Mobil is deeply engaged in the manufacturing, commercial trading, logistical transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum goods, a wide array of petrochemicals (including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics), and other specialized chemical products. Furthermore, the company is actively developing solutions in carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, the corporation maintained approximately 20,528 net operational wells with verified reserves. Founded in 1870, Exxon Mobil's corporate headquarters are located in Irving, Texas.
Financial Metrics — XOM Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$77.94
FCF/Share (TTM)
$4.49
ROIC (TTM)
5.5%
ROE (TTM)
9.8%
P/FCF
34.6x
EV/EBITDA
11.4x
FCF Yield
2.89%
Debt/Equity
0.19x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, XOM shows a free cash flow per share of $4.49 and a ROIC of 5.5%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 34.6x and FCF yield of 2.89% are important context metrics when evaluating XOM's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of XOM?
Exxon Mobil Corporation currently generates $4.49 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $156.80, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is XOM undervalued?
XOM trades at a P/FCF ratio of 34.6x with a free cash flow yield of 2.89%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether XOM is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value XOM stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Exxon Mobil Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($4.49) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Oil & Gas Integrated industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting XOM's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.19x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to XOM?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Exxon Mobil Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Oil & Gas Integrated trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. XOM's ROIC of 5.5% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect XOM stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For XOM, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 11.4x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See XOM PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Energy valuationsDCF and P/E value XOM with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-29. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.