Oil & Gas Integrated · NYSE
Current Price
$154.67
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
Run a full DCF analysis on Exxon Mobil Corporation with auto-filled fundamentals, adjustable assumptions, and sensitivity heatmap.
Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 20,528 net operated wells with proved reserves. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
ROIC (TTM)
6.3%
ROE (TTM)
11.0%
FCF Yield
3.67%
Based on trailing twelve-month data, XOM shows a free cash flow per share of N/A and a ROIC of 6.3%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of N/A and FCF yield of 3.67% are important context metrics when evaluating XOM's stock valuation relative to peers.
The intrinsic value of XOM depends on assumptions about future growth rate, discount rate (WACC), and terminal value. A DCF model discounts projected free cash flows back to present value — small changes in WACC can shift the estimate by 20% or more, which is why sensitivity analysis is essential.
Whether XOM is undervalued depends on comparing the DCF-derived intrinsic value to the current market price of $154.67. A positive margin of safety (intrinsic value above market price) suggests potential undervaluation, but the degree of confidence depends on the reliability of your growth and discount rate assumptions.
To perform a DCF valuation on Exxon Mobil Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Oil & Gas Integrated industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting XOM's risk profile, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Exxon Mobil Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the Oil & Gas Integrated will produce over the next 5-10 years, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. XOM's ROIC of 6.3% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For XOM, the capital structure and equity risk premium determine WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%.
