Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Industrial - Machinery · NYSE
Current Price
$72.14
Intrinsic Value
$74.34
+3.0% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Brand Recognition & Trust
Carrier's long-standing reputation for reliability and quality in HVAC and refrigeration builds customer loyalty. This established brand equity makes it difficult for new entrants to gain market share.
↑Service & Distribution Network
An extensive global network of trained technicians and distributors provides crucial after-sales support. This infrastructure is a significant barrier to entry and enhances customer retention.
↑Product Innovation & Efficiency
Continuous investment in R&D for energy-efficient and smart climate solutions creates differentiated products. This technological edge appeals to environmentally conscious and cost-sensitive customers.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Regulatory & Environmental Shifts
Stricter environmental regulations on refrigerants and energy efficiency could necessitate costly product redesigns. Failure to adapt quickly may impact market competitiveness.
↓Commodity Price Volatility
Fluctuations in raw material costs, such as metals and refrigerants, can impact manufacturing margins. Unpredictable price swings pose a challenge to consistent profitability.
↓Intense Industry Competition
The HVAC and refrigeration market features numerous global and regional competitors. Price wars and aggressive market strategies can erode market share and profitability.
Base case
CARR base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for CARR estimates an intrinsic value of about $74.34 per share, against a current price of $72.14. The model assumes 11.4% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 30x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$74.34
Margin of safety
+3.0%
Expected annual return
+0.6%
Base case assumptions: 11.4% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-15.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the CARR valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Carrier Global Corporation respond.
Open DCF Calculator for CARRCompany Overview
Carrier Global Corporation is a worldwide provider of advanced technological solutions covering heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire safety, security, and intelligent building automation. Its operations are structured across three primary business segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment is dedicated to supplying products, controls, services, and complete solutions tailored to the heating, cooling, and ventilation requirements of both residential and commercial clients. Offerings in this area include air conditioning units, heating systems, various control mechanisms, aftermarket components, as well as post-installation repair, maintenance services, and building automation capabilities. The Refrigeration segment focuses on providing transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services. This includes digital solutions for diverse applications such as trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal transport, food retail, and warehouse cooling. Additionally, it offers commercial refrigeration solutions like display cabinets, freezers, integrated systems, and their corresponding controls. The Fire & Security segment delivers a comprehensive suite of technologies for residential, commercial, and industrial environments. This encompasses detection systems for fire, flame, gas, smoke, and carbon monoxide; portable fire extinguishers; advanced fire suppression systems; intruder alarms; access control systems; video management systems; and electronic controls. Its service portfolio further extends to auditing, design, installation, system integration, ongoing maintenance, repair, and monitoring services. The company markets its extensive product range under numerous brands, including Autronica, Det-Tronics, Edwards, Fireye, GST, Kidde, LenelS2, Marioff, Onity, Supra, Carrier, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, Riello, Carrier Commercial Refrigeration, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech. Established in 2019, Carrier Global Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
Financial Metrics — CARR Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$26.19
FCF/Share (TTM)
$1.99
ROIC (TTM)
5.1%
ROE (TTM)
9.3%
P/FCF
36.1x
EV/EBITDA
22.5x
FCF Yield
2.77%
Debt/Equity
0.93x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, CARR shows a free cash flow per share of $1.99 and a ROIC of 5.1%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 36.1x and FCF yield of 2.77% are important context metrics when evaluating CARR's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of CARR?
Carrier Global Corporation currently generates $1.99 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $72.14, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is CARR undervalued?
CARR trades at a P/FCF ratio of 36.1x with a free cash flow yield of 2.77%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether CARR is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value CARR stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Carrier Global Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($1.99) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Industrial - Machinery industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting CARR's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.93x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to CARR?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Carrier Global Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Industrial - Machinery trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. CARR's ROIC of 5.1% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect CARR stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For CARR, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.93x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 22.5x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See CARR PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Industrials valuationsDCF and P/E value CARR with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-15. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.