Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Specialty Retail · NASDAQ
Current Price
$238.55
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Vast Logistics Network
Amazon's extensive fulfillment and delivery infrastructure creates significant barriers to entry for competitors. This network enables rapid, reliable shipping, a key customer differentiator.
↑Prime Ecosystem Lock-in
The Amazon Prime membership program fosters deep customer loyalty and recurring revenue. Prime benefits, from shipping to streaming, make it difficult for customers to switch to alternatives.
↑AWS Cloud Dominance
Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a leading cloud computing platform, generating substantial profits and reinvestment capital. Its scale and breadth of services are difficult for rivals to match.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intensifying Cloud Competition
Emerging 'neoclouds' are showing rapid growth, challenging the dominance of hyperscalers like AWS. This could pressure AWS's market share and profitability over time.
↓Retailer Sales Event Clashes
Increased promotional activity from competitors like Walmart and Target during key sales periods can dilute Amazon's market share and impact margins.
↓AI Infrastructure Investment
While AI presents opportunities, the massive investment required for infrastructure, as seen with Nvidia, could strain Amazon's resources and profitability if not managed effectively.
Customize the AMZN valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Amazon.com, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for AMZNCompany Overview
Amazon.com, Inc. operates a vast global retail enterprise, distributing consumer goods and subscription services through both its extensive online platforms and a network of physical stores across North America and internationally. Its operations are structured into three primary segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). The company's product offerings encompass both merchandise and content procured for direct resale, alongside items sold by third-party merchants on its platform. Furthermore, the company develops and markets its own range of electronic devices, such as Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets and TVs, Ring, Blink, eero, and Echo products. It also invests in the development and production of original media content. Amazon provides various programs designed to enable independent sellers to offer their products, and empowers authors, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, and app developers to publish and commercialize their content. Beyond this, it delivers a comprehensive suite of cloud computing solutions, including compute, storage, database, analytics, and machine learning services through AWS. The company also offers fulfillment services, advertising solutions, and digital content subscriptions. A key offering is Amazon Prime, its exclusive membership program. Amazon caters to a wide array of clientele, including individual consumers, third-party sellers, software developers, enterprise clients, content creators, and advertisers. Incorporated in 1994, Amazon.com, Inc. maintains its headquarters in Seattle, Washington.
Financial Metrics — AMZN Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$69.14
FCF/Share (TTM)
$-0.23
ROIC (TTM)
9.6%
ROE (TTM)
23.3%
P/FCF
n/m
EV/EBITDA
14.2x
FCF Yield
-0.10%
Debt/Equity
0.47x
AMZN currently has negative free cash flow, so cash-flow ratios such as P/FCF and FCF yield do not give a meaningful read on whether the stock is cheap or expensive. A DCF valuation is unreliable until cash generation turns positive — focus on the path to profitability instead.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of AMZN?
Amazon.com, Inc. currently generates $-0.23 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $238.55, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is AMZN undervalued?
AMZN currently has negative free cash flow, so its P/FCF ratio is not meaningful and cannot tell you whether the stock is cheap or expensive. With cash flow negative, a DCF-based undervalued or overvalued judgment is unreliable — look at the path back to positive cash generation instead.
How do I value AMZN stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Amazon.com, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($-0.23) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Specialty Retail industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting AMZN's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.47x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to AMZN?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Amazon.com, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Specialty Retail trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. AMZN's ROIC of 9.6% shows moderate capital returns.
How does WACC affect AMZN stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For AMZN, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 14.2x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See AMZN PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value AMZN with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.