Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Apparel - Retail · NYSE
Current Price
$338.45
Intrinsic Value
$309.75
-9.3% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Value Proposition
Burlington's off-price model attracts a broad customer base seeking discounts. This consistent value offering drives repeat traffic and loyalty.
↑Inventory Management
Agile inventory sourcing and management allow Burlington to capitalize on opportunistic buys. This flexibility supports margin expansion and competitive pricing.
↑Store Productivity Gains
Focus on improving in-store operations and customer experience enhances sales per square foot. This drives profitable growth from existing store base.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Competitive Landscape
The retail sector is highly competitive, with both off-price and traditional retailers vying for consumer spending. Intense competition can pressure margins.
↓Economic Sensitivity
As a value retailer, Burlington's performance is tied to consumer discretionary spending. Economic downturns or inflation can reduce demand.
↓Supply Chain Disruptions
Reliance on opportunistic inventory means vulnerability to supply chain issues. Disruptions can impact product availability and pricing.
Base case
BURL base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for BURL estimates an intrinsic value of about $309.75 per share, against a current price of $338.45. The model assumes 15.8% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 30x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$309.75
Margin of safety
-9.3%
Expected annual return
-1.8%
Base case assumptions: 15.8% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the BURL valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Burlington Stores, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for BURLCompany Overview
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a prominent retail chain across the United States, offering a diverse selection of branded apparel and other consumer products. Its merchandise is heavily focused on current fashion trends, providing items such as women's ready-to-wear, men's clothing, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, and outerwear. Additionally, the company stocks toys, gifts, and various products for the home, baby, and beauty categories. As of January 29, 2022, Burlington Stores, Inc. maintained an extensive network of 837 outlets under its flagship Burlington Stores brand, two Cohoes Fashions locations, and a single MJM Designer Shoes store. These establishments are situated throughout 45 U.S. states and Puerto Rico. The enterprise was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey.
Financial Metrics — BURL Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$185.82
FCF/Share (TTM)
$6.81
ROIC (TTM)
8.2%
ROE (TTM)
37.7%
P/FCF
48.8x
EV/EBITDA
19.9x
FCF Yield
2.05%
Debt/Equity
3.20x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, BURL shows a free cash flow per share of $6.81 and a ROIC of 8.2%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 48.8x and FCF yield of 2.05% are important context metrics when evaluating BURL's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of BURL?
Burlington Stores, Inc. currently generates $6.81 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $338.45, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is BURL undervalued?
BURL trades at a P/FCF ratio of 48.8x with a free cash flow yield of 2.05%. This elevated P/FCF suggests the market is pricing in significant future growth. However, whether BURL is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value BURL stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Burlington Stores, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($6.81) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Apparel - Retail industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting BURL's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 3.20x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to BURL?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Burlington Stores, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Apparel - Retail trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. BURL's ROIC of 8.2% shows moderate capital returns.
How does WACC affect BURL stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For BURL, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.20x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 19.9x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See BURL PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value BURL with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.