Residential Construction · NYSE
当前价格
$131.12
内在价值
使用下方计算器估算
对 Toll Brothers, Inc. 运行完整的 DCF 分析，自动填充基本面数据，可调节假设参数，含敏感性热力图。
Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Traditional Home Building and City Living. It also designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. In addition, the company develops, owns, and operates golf courses and country clubs; develops and sells land; and develops, operates, and rents apartments, as well as provides various interior fit-out options, such as flooring, wall tile, plumbing, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies. Further, it owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and manufacturing operations. The company serves move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. It has a strategic partnership with Equity Residential to develop new rental apartment communities in the United States markets. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.
ROIC (TTM)
11.4%
ROE (TTM)
16.9%
FCF Yield
11.69%
基于过去 12 个月的数据，TOL 每股自由现金流为 N/A，投入资本回报率（ROIC）为 11.4%，这些是使用 DCF 方法进行股票估值的关键输入。P/FCF 比率为 N/A，FCF 收益率为 11.69%，是评估 TOL 相对估值的重要参考指标。
TOL 的内在价值取决于未来增长率、折现率（WACC）和终值假设。DCF 模型将预期自由现金流折现回现值——WACC 的小幅变化可能导致估算偏移 20% 以上，因此敏感性分析至关重要。
TOL 是否被低估取决于 DCF 内在价值与当前市价 $131.12 的比较。正的安全边际（内在价值高于市价）暗示潜在低估，但置信度取决于增长率和折现率假设的可靠性。
对 Toll Brothers, Inc. 进行 DCF 估值的步骤：(1) 以过去 12 个月每股自由现金流为基础，(2) 根据Residential Construction行业趋势和公司基本面预测未来 5-10 年的 FCF 增长，(3) 选择反映 TOL 风险的折现率（WACC），(4) 加上预测期之后的终值。
DCF（折现现金流）根据公司未来的现金产生能力估算其当前价值。对于 Toll Brothers, Inc.，这意味着预测Residential Construction在未来 5-10 年能产生多少自由现金流，再折现到今天的价值。TOL 的 ROIC 为 11.4%，显示中等水平的资本回报。
WACC（加权平均资本成本）是 DCF 模型中的折现率——反映投资者要求的最低回报。对于 TOL，资本结构和股权风险溢价决定了 WACC。WACC 每提高 1%，内在价值通常下降 10-15%。
