Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · NYSE
当前价格
$251.91
内在价值
使用下方计算器估算
对 Marathon Petroleum Corporation 运行完整的 DCF 分析，自动填充基本面数据，可调节假设参数，含敏感性热力图。
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
ROIC (TTM)
8.0%
ROE (TTM)
24.0%
FCF Yield
6.42%
基于过去 12 个月的数据，MPC 每股自由现金流为 N/A，投入资本回报率（ROIC）为 8.0%，这些是使用 DCF 方法进行股票估值的关键输入。P/FCF 比率为 N/A，FCF 收益率为 6.42%，是评估 MPC 相对估值的重要参考指标。
MPC 的内在价值取决于未来增长率、折现率（WACC）和终值假设。DCF 模型将预期自由现金流折现回现值——WACC 的小幅变化可能导致估算偏移 20% 以上，因此敏感性分析至关重要。
MPC 是否被低估取决于 DCF 内在价值与当前市价 $251.91 的比较。正的安全边际（内在价值高于市价）暗示潜在低估，但置信度取决于增长率和折现率假设的可靠性。
对 Marathon Petroleum Corporation 进行 DCF 估值的步骤：(1) 以过去 12 个月每股自由现金流为基础，(2) 根据Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing行业趋势和公司基本面预测未来 5-10 年的 FCF 增长，(3) 选择反映 MPC 风险的折现率（WACC），(4) 加上预测期之后的终值。
DCF（折现现金流）根据公司未来的现金产生能力估算其当前价值。对于 Marathon Petroleum Corporation，这意味着预测Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing在未来 5-10 年能产生多少自由现金流，再折现到今天的价值。MPC 的 ROIC 为 8.0%，显示中等水平的资本回报。
WACC（加权平均资本成本）是 DCF 模型中的折现率——反映投资者要求的最低回报。对于 MPC，资本结构和股权风险溢价决定了 WACC。WACC 每提高 1%，内在价值通常下降 10-15%。
