Diversified Utilities · NYSE
当前价格
$14.00
内在价值
使用下方计算器估算
对 The AES Corporation 运行完整的 DCF 分析，自动填充基本面数据，可调节假设参数，含敏感性热力图。
The AES Corporation operates as a diversified power generation and utility company. It owns and/or operates power plants to generate and sell power to customers, such as utilities, industrial users, and other intermediaries. The company also owns and/or operates utilities to generate or purchase, distribute, transmit, and sell electricity to end-user customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental sectors; and generates and sells electricity on the wholesale market. It uses a range of fuels and technologies to generate electricity, including coal, gas, hydro, wind, solar, and biomass; and renewables, such as energy storage and landfill gas. The company owns and/or operates a generation portfolio of approximately 31,459 megawatts. It has operations in the United States, Puerto Rico, El Salvador, Chile, Colombia, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Asia. The company was formerly known as Applied Energy Services, Inc. and changed its name to The AES Corporation in April 2000. The AES Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
ROIC (TTM)
1.7%
ROE (TTM)
20.4%
FCF Yield
-16.27%
AES 的内在价值取决于未来增长率、折现率（WACC）和终值假设。DCF 模型将预期自由现金流折现回现值——WACC 的小幅变化可能导致估算偏移 20% 以上，因此敏感性分析至关重要。
AES 是否被低估取决于 DCF 内在价值与当前市价 $14.00 的比较。正的安全边际（内在价值高于市价）暗示潜在低估，但置信度取决于增长率和折现率假设的可靠性。
对 The AES Corporation 进行 DCF 估值的步骤：(1) 以过去 12 个月每股自由现金流为基础，(2) 根据Diversified Utilities行业趋势和公司基本面预测未来 5-10 年的 FCF 增长，(3) 选择反映 AES 风险的折现率（WACC），(4) 加上预测期之后的终值。
DCF（折现现金流）根据公司未来的现金产生能力估算其当前价值。对于 The AES Corporation，这意味着预测Diversified Utilities在未来 5-10 年能产生多少自由现金流，再折现到今天的价值。AES 的 ROIC 为 1.7%，表明公司可能面临产生超过资本成本回报的挑战。
WACC（加权平均资本成本）是 DCF 模型中的折现率——反映投资者要求的最低回报。对于 AES，资本结构和股权风险溢价决定了 WACC。WACC 每提高 1%，内在价值通常下降 10-15%。
