Exelon Corporation (EXC) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Regulated Electric · NASDAQ
Current Price
$46.21
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Regulated Monopoly Power
ComEd operates as a regulated utility, granting it a de facto monopoly in its service territories. This limits direct competition and ensures a stable customer base for essential services.
↑Essential Service Demand
Electricity is a fundamental necessity for modern life and industry. Exelon's services are non-discretionary, creating consistent and predictable demand regardless of economic cycles.
↑Large Scale Infrastructure
Exelon possesses extensive and costly-to-replicate transmission and distribution networks. Building similar infrastructure would be prohibitively expensive for any potential competitor.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Regulatory Scrutiny and Rate Cases
As a regulated entity, Exelon is subject to government oversight and rate-setting decisions. Unfavorable regulatory outcomes can impact profitability and investment returns.
↓Rising Operating Costs
Increasing costs for power supply, as seen with PJM, can pressure margins. Exelon's ability to pass these costs to consumers is subject to regulatory approval.
↓Energy Transition and Capital Needs
The shift to renewables requires significant capital investment. Exelon must balance these investments with maintaining affordability for customers and shareholders.
Customize the EXC valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Exelon Corporation respond.
Open DCF Calculator for EXCCompany Overview
Exelon Corporation, a utility holding company established in 1999 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, operates across the United States and Canada. The company primarily focuses on the generation, delivery, and marketing of energy. It maintains a diverse portfolio of power production facilities, utilizing nuclear, fossil fuel, wind, hydroelectric, biomass, and solar technologies. Exelon engages in the sale of electricity to both wholesale and retail clients, while also providing natural gas, renewable energy solutions, and various other energy-related products and services. Beyond generation, the corporation manages the regulated procurement and direct sale of electricity and natural gas to consumers, alongside overseeing the essential transmission and distribution infrastructure for both power and natural gas. To support its extensive operations, Exelon provides a wide array of internal services, including legal counsel, human resources, information technology, financial management, supply chain, accounting, engineering, customer support, infrastructure planning, asset management, system operations, and power acquisition. The company caters to a broad customer base, which includes distribution utilities, municipal entities, cooperatives, financial institutions, and commercial, industrial, governmental, and residential sectors.
Financial Metrics — EXC Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$24.21
FCF/Share (TTM)
$-2.11
ROIC (TTM)
3.9%
ROE (TTM)
9.8%
P/FCF
n/m
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
FCF Yield
-4.57%
Debt/Equity
1.75x
EXC currently has negative free cash flow, so cash-flow ratios such as P/FCF and FCF yield do not give a meaningful read on whether the stock is cheap or expensive. A DCF valuation is unreliable until cash generation turns positive — focus on the path to profitability instead.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of EXC?
Exelon Corporation currently generates $-2.11 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $46.21, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is EXC undervalued?
EXC currently has negative free cash flow, so its P/FCF ratio is not meaningful and cannot tell you whether the stock is cheap or expensive. With cash flow negative, a DCF-based undervalued or overvalued judgment is unreliable — look at the path back to positive cash generation instead.
How do I value EXC stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Exelon Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($-2.11) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Regulated Electric industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting EXC's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.75x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to EXC?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Exelon Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Regulated Electric trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. EXC's ROIC of 3.9% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect EXC stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For EXC, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.75x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 10.9x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See EXC PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Utilities valuationsDCF and P/E value EXC with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.