Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Regulated Electric · NYSE
Current Price
$124.97
Intrinsic Value
$147.09
+15.0% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Regulated Monopoly Power
Duke Energy operates as a regulated utility, granting it exclusive rights to provide electricity in its service territories. This regulatory structure creates a significant barrier to entry for competitors.
↑Essential Infrastructure Ownership
The company owns and maintains vast, critical electricity generation and distribution infrastructure. Replacing this extensive network would be prohibitively expensive and time-consuming for any potential rival.
↑Long-Term Customer Relationships
As a provider of a fundamental necessity, Duke Energy benefits from stable, long-term customer relationships. Switching providers is often complex and costly for consumers, fostering customer retention.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Regulatory Uncertainty
Changes in state and federal regulations regarding energy generation, pricing, and environmental standards can significantly impact profitability and operational strategies. New DOE funding mitigates some of this, but future policy shifts remain a concern.
↓Capital Expenditure Demands
Significant ongoing investment is required to maintain and upgrade aging infrastructure and transition to cleaner energy sources. The need for substantial capital can strain financial resources.
↓Extreme Weather Events
Increasingly severe weather patterns can disrupt operations, damage infrastructure, and lead to increased costs for repairs and restoration. While offering energy-saving tips is proactive, the underlying threat of extreme temperatures persists.
Base case
DUK base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for DUK estimates an intrinsic value of about $147.09 per share, against a current price of $124.97. The model assumes 6.6% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 15x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$147.09
Margin of safety
+15.0%
Expected annual return
+3.3%
Base case assumptions: 6.6% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 15x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the DUK valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Duke Energy Corporation respond.
Open DCF Calculator for DUKCompany Overview
Duke Energy Corporation, an energy provider operating across the United States with its various affiliates, structures its operations into three primary divisions: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables. The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure division is responsible for generating, transmitting, distributing, and retailing electricity across the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwestern states. Its power generation relies on a diverse portfolio of fuel sources, including coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewable technologies, and nuclear energy. Beyond direct retail sales, it also provides electricity at wholesale rates to various entities such as municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and other load-serving organizations. This segment caters to approximately 8.2 million customers spanning six states within the Southeastern and Midwestern U.S., encompassing a service area of about 91,000 square miles, and boasts an impressive generating capacity of approximately 50,259 megawatts. The Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment focuses on the distribution of natural gas to a broad customer base, including residential homes, commercial enterprises, industrial facilities, and power generation plants. It also manages, operates, and invests in essential pipeline transmission networks and natural gas storage facilities. This segment serves around 1.6 million customers in total, with roughly 1.1 million located in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, and an additional 550,000 customers in southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Through its Commercial Renewables division, Duke Energy is actively involved in the acquisition, development, construction, ownership, and operation of wind and solar power projects. This includes offering non-regulated renewable energy and energy storage solutions to a variety of clients, such as utility companies, electric cooperatives, municipal governments, and corporate entities. The division's portfolio comprises 23 wind farms, 178 solar installations, two battery storage sites, and 71 fuel cell locations, totaling a substantial capacity of 3,554 MW spread across 22 different states. Established in 1904, the company was initially known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. before adopting its current name, Duke Energy Corporation, in April 2005. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Financial Metrics — DUK Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$42.79
FCF/Share (TTM)
$8.49
ROIC (TTM)
4.2%
ROE (TTM)
9.9%
P/FCF
14.8x
EV/EBITDA
11.6x
FCF Yield
6.78%
Debt/Equity
1.67x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, DUK shows a free cash flow per share of $8.49 and a ROIC of 4.2%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 14.8x and FCF yield of 6.78% are important context metrics when evaluating DUK's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of DUK?
Duke Energy Corporation currently generates $8.49 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $124.97, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is DUK undervalued?
DUK trades at a P/FCF ratio of 14.8x with a free cash flow yield of 6.78%. This relatively low P/FCF may suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to its cash generation. However, whether DUK is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value DUK stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Duke Energy Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($8.49) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Regulated Electric industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting DUK's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.67x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to DUK?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Duke Energy Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Regulated Electric trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. DUK's ROIC of 4.2% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect DUK stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For DUK, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.67x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 11.6x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See DUK PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Utilities valuationsDCF and P/E value DUK with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.