Consumer Electronics · NASDAQ
当前价格
$248.80
内在价值
使用下方计算器估算
对 Apple Inc. 运行完整的 DCF 分析，自动填充基本面数据，可调节假设参数，含敏感性热力图。
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV+, which offers exclusive original content; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and resellers. Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
ROIC (TTM)
51.0%
ROE (TTM)
159.9%
FCF Yield
3.37%
基于过去 12 个月的数据，AAPL 每股自由现金流为 N/A，投入资本回报率（ROIC）为 51.0%，这些是使用 DCF 方法进行股票估值的关键输入。P/FCF 比率为 N/A，FCF 收益率为 3.37%，是评估 AAPL 相对估值的重要参考指标。
AAPL 的内在价值取决于未来增长率、折现率（WACC）和终值假设。DCF 模型将预期自由现金流折现回现值——WACC 的小幅变化可能导致估算偏移 20% 以上，因此敏感性分析至关重要。
AAPL 是否被低估取决于 DCF 内在价值与当前市价 $248.80 的比较。正的安全边际（内在价值高于市价）暗示潜在低估，但置信度取决于增长率和折现率假设的可靠性。
对 Apple Inc. 进行 DCF 估值的步骤：(1) 以过去 12 个月每股自由现金流为基础，(2) 根据Consumer Electronics行业趋势和公司基本面预测未来 5-10 年的 FCF 增长，(3) 选择反映 AAPL 风险的折现率（WACC），(4) 加上预测期之后的终值。
DCF（折现现金流）根据公司未来的现金产生能力估算其当前价值。对于 Apple Inc.，这意味着预测Consumer Electronics在未来 5-10 年能产生多少自由现金流，再折现到今天的价值。AAPL 的 ROIC 为 51.0%，表明资本效率较高，支持在 DCF 模型中使用较高的增长假设。
WACC（加权平均资本成本）是 DCF 模型中的折现率——反映投资者要求的最低回报。对于 AAPL，资本结构和股权风险溢价决定了 WACC。WACC 每提高 1%，内在价值通常下降 10-15%。
