ConocoPhillips (COP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · NYSE
Current Price
$133.82
Intrinsic Value
$165.75
+19.3% margin of safety
What Is ConocoPhillips's Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-10-08, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips (COP) at $165.75 per share, compared with a market price of $133.82, a margin of safety of +19.3%. The base case assumes 3.7% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $145.1 to $190.16. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is ConocoPhillips (COP) Undervalued?
At $133.82, COP trades about 19.3% below the base-case intrinsic value estimate. That is a real discount, but it stays short of the 30% margin of safety required before calling a stock undervalued.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Scale and Operational Efficiency
ConocoPhillips benefits from significant scale in exploration and production, leading to cost efficiencies. This allows them to operate profitably across a wider range of commodity prices.
↑Geographic Diversification
A diversified portfolio of assets across various global regions mitigates country-specific risks. This spreads operational and political exposure, enhancing stability.
↑Low-Cost Production Assets
The company possesses a portfolio of low-cost, high-quality production assets. This provides a structural advantage in generating free cash flow, even during downturns.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Geopolitical Instability
Operations in various regions expose ConocoPhillips to geopolitical risks, including supply disruptions and political interference. Recent attacks on energy infrastructure highlight this vulnerability.
↓Execution and Project Delays
Large-scale exploration and production projects carry inherent risks of delays and cost overruns. Successful execution is critical for realizing projected returns.
↓Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Factors
Increasing investor and societal focus on ESG performance can lead to reputational damage and operational challenges. Failure to meet evolving standards poses a risk.
Base case
COP base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$165.75
Margin of safety
+19.3%
Expected annual return
+4.4%
Base case assumptions: 3.7% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 8.07x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-10-08.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the COP valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for ConocoPhillips respond.
Open DCF Calculator for COPCompany Overview
ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its primary operations are centered on both conventional and tight oil formations, shale gas, heavy crude, LNG developments, and oil sands projects. The company's extensive portfolio includes unconventional resources located in North America; established conventional assets spanning North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; numerous LNG ventures; oil sands properties within Canada; and a significant inventory of potential conventional and unconventional exploration opportunities. ConocoPhillips was established in 1917 and its corporate headquarters are situated in Houston, Texas.
Financial Metrics — COP Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$52.20
FCF/Share (TTM)
$16.15
ROIC (TTM)
7.9%
ROE (TTM)
14.3%
P/FCF
8.1x
EV/EBITDA
6.3x
FCF Yield
12.39%
Debt/Equity
0.36x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, COP shows a free cash flow per share of $16.15 and a ROIC of 7.9%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 8.1x and FCF yield of 12.39% are important context metrics when evaluating COP's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of COP?
ConocoPhillips currently generates $16.15 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $133.82, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is COP undervalued?
COP trades at a P/FCF ratio of 8.1x with a free cash flow yield of 12.39%. A low P/FCF means investors are paying less per dollar of free cash flow; whether that is cheap depends on the company's growth, cyclicality, and capital intensity. However, whether COP is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value COP stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on ConocoPhillips: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($16.15) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting COP's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.36x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to COP?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For ConocoPhillips, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Oil & Gas Exploration & Production trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. COP's ROIC of 7.9% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect COP stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For COP, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 6.3x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See COP PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Energy valuationsDCF and P/E value COP with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-08. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.