Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Apparel - Retail · NYSE
Current Price
$276.84
Intrinsic Value
$343.94
+19.5% margin of safety
What Is Burlington Stores, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-10-08, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) at $343.94 per share, compared with a market price of $276.84, a margin of safety of +19.5%. The base case assumes 9.1% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $274.13 to $424.22. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Undervalued?
At $276.84, BURL trades about 19.5% below the base-case intrinsic value estimate. That is a real discount, but it stays short of the 30% margin of safety required before calling a stock undervalued.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Off-Price Retailer Scale Advantage
Burlington leverages its large store footprint and purchasing power to secure desirable merchandise at lower costs. This scale allows for competitive pricing and a constantly refreshed inventory.
↑Brand Recognition and Customer Loyalty
The Burlington brand is well-established in the off-price retail sector. Customers recognize the value proposition and return for opportunistic shopping experiences.
↑Agile Inventory Management
Burlington excels at quickly acquiring and selling diverse merchandise, adapting to changing fashion trends and supplier opportunities. This dynamic approach differentiates it from traditional retailers.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Economic Sensitivity of Discretionary Spending
As an off-price retailer, Burlington's sales are highly dependent on consumer discretionary spending. Economic downturns or reduced consumer confidence can significantly impact revenue.
↓Inventory Management Risks
The off-price model relies on opportunistic buying. Failure to effectively manage inventory, including markdowns and obsolescence, can lead to significant financial losses.
↓Shifting Consumer Preferences
Changes in fashion trends and consumer shopping habits, including a potential shift towards online or curated experiences, could negatively impact Burlington's traditional brick-and-mortar model.
Base case
BURL base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$343.94
Margin of safety
+19.5%
Expected annual return
+4.4%
Base case assumptions: 9.1% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 17.23x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-10-08.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the BURL valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Burlington Stores, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for BURLCompany Overview
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a prominent retail chain across the United States, offering a diverse selection of branded apparel and other consumer products. Its merchandise is heavily focused on current fashion trends, providing items such as women's ready-to-wear, men's clothing, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, and outerwear. Additionally, the company stocks toys, gifts, and various products for the home, baby, and beauty categories. As of January 29, 2022, Burlington Stores, Inc. maintained an extensive network of 837 outlets under its flagship Burlington Stores brand, two Cohoes Fashions locations, and a single MJM Designer Shoes store. These establishments are situated throughout 45 U.S. states and Puerto Rico. The enterprise was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey.
Financial Metrics — BURL Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$191.19
FCF/Share (TTM)
$15.83
ROIC (TTM)
9.0%
ROE (TTM)
39.8%
P/FCF
17.0x
EV/EBITDA
15.4x
FCF Yield
5.80%
Debt/Equity
2.95x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, BURL generates free cash flow per share of $15.83 alongside a ROIC of 9.0%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 17.0x and FCF yield of 5.80% then frame how BURL is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of BURL?
Burlington Stores, Inc. currently generates $15.83 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $276.84, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is BURL undervalued?
BURL trades at a P/FCF ratio of 17.0x with a free cash flow yield of 5.80%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether BURL is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value BURL stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Burlington Stores, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($15.83) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Apparel - Retail industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting BURL's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 2.95x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to BURL?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Burlington Stores, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Apparel - Retail trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. BURL's ROIC of 9.0% shows moderate capital returns.
How does WACC affect BURL stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For BURL, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.95x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 15.4x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See BURL PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value BURL with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-08. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.