Wingstop Inc. (WING) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Restaurants · NASDAQ
Current Price
$139.45
Intrinsic Value
$195.84
+28.8% margin of safety
What Is Wingstop Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-29, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Wingstop Inc. (WING) at $195.84 per share, compared with a market price of $139.45, a margin of safety of +28.8%. The base case assumes 14.1% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $164.15 to $231.7. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Wingstop Inc. (WING) Undervalued?
At $139.45, WING trades about 28.8% below the base-case intrinsic value estimate. That is a real discount, but it stays short of the 30% margin of safety required before calling a stock undervalued.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Brand Recognition and Loyalty
Wingstop has cultivated a strong brand identity centered on chicken wings. This recognition fosters customer loyalty and repeat business, making it a preferred choice for wing enthusiasts.
↑Operational Efficiency and Scalability
The company's standardized operating model allows for efficient expansion and consistent product delivery across its franchise network. This scalability supports continued growth and market penetration.
↑Flavor Innovation and Menu Differentiation
Wingstop's focus on unique and bold flavor profiles, like the new Sweet Heat Chamoy, differentiates it from competitors. This innovation drives customer interest and trial of new offerings.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Dependence on Franchisees
Wingstop's franchise model means its success is heavily reliant on the performance and adherence to standards of its franchisees. Any issues at the franchisee level can impact the brand.
↓Consumer Taste and Trend Shifts
Changes in consumer preferences or dietary trends could impact demand for chicken wings. The company must remain agile to adapt to evolving tastes.
↓Market Volatility and Stock Performance
Recent stock price declines, even when the broader market rises, indicate investor sentiment can be volatile. This can be influenced by various market factors and company-specific news.
Base case
WING base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$195.84
Margin of safety
+28.8%
Expected annual return
+7.0%
Base case assumptions: 14.1% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 29x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-29.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the WING valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Wingstop Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for WINGCompany Overview
Wingstop Inc., together with its affiliated companies, manages and licenses a network of restaurants known by the Wingstop brand. These establishments are recognized for their made-to-order offerings, including classic bone-in wings, boneless wings, and tenders, all freshly cooked and expertly hand-tossed in a wide array of distinctive sauces. By December 25, 2021, Wingstop's extensive reach encompassed 1,695 independently operated franchise locations and 36 company-owned stores, spread throughout 44 U.S. states and seven countries globally. This enterprise, which was founded in 1994, has its corporate headquarters located in Addison, Texas.
Financial Metrics — WING Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$26.46
FCF/Share (TTM)
$4.85
ROIC (TTM)
25.0%
ROE (TTM)
-15.5%
P/FCF
28.8x
EV/EBITDA
16.4x
FCF Yield
3.48%
Debt/Equity
n/m
On a trailing twelve-month basis, WING generates free cash flow per share of $4.85 alongside a ROIC of 25.0%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 28.8x and FCF yield of 3.48% then frame how WING is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of WING?
Wingstop Inc. currently generates $4.85 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $139.45, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is WING undervalued?
WING trades at a P/FCF ratio of 28.8x with a free cash flow yield of 3.48%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether WING is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value WING stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Wingstop Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($4.85) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Restaurants industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting WING's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of -0.08x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to WING?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Wingstop Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Restaurants trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. WING's ROIC of 25.0% reflects how efficiently the company converts invested capital into profit.
How does WACC affect WING stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For WING, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -0.08x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 16.4x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See WING PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value WING with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-29. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.