Integrated Freight & Logistics · NYSE
Current Price
$106.62
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
Run a full DCF analysis on United Parcel Service, Inc. with auto-filled fundamentals, adjustable assumptions, and sensitivity heatmap.
United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, transportation, logistics, and related services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery of letters, documents, small packages, and palletized freight through air and ground services in the United States. The International Package segment provides guaranteed day and time-definite international shipping services in Europe, the Asia Pacific, Canada and Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East, and Africa. This segment offers guaranteed time-definite express options. The company also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, distribution and post-sales, and mail and consulting services in approximately 200 countries and territories. In addition, it offers truckload brokerage services; supply chain solutions to the healthcare and life sciences industry; shipping, visibility, and billing technologies; and financial and insurance services. The company operates a fleet of approximately 121,000 package cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles; and owns 59,000 containers that are used to transport cargo in its aircraft. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
ROIC (TTM)
10.1%
ROE (TTM)
33.0%
FCF Yield
4.98%
Based on trailing twelve-month data, UPS shows a free cash flow per share of N/A and a ROIC of 10.1%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of N/A and FCF yield of 4.98% are important context metrics when evaluating UPS's stock valuation relative to peers.
The intrinsic value of UPS depends on assumptions about future growth rate, discount rate (WACC), and terminal value. A DCF model discounts projected free cash flows back to present value — small changes in WACC can shift the estimate by 20% or more, which is why sensitivity analysis is essential.
Whether UPS is undervalued depends on comparing the DCF-derived intrinsic value to the current market price of $106.62. A positive margin of safety (intrinsic value above market price) suggests potential undervaluation, but the degree of confidence depends on the reliability of your growth and discount rate assumptions.
To perform a DCF valuation on United Parcel Service, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Integrated Freight & Logistics industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting UPS's risk profile, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For United Parcel Service, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the Integrated Freight & Logistics will produce over the next 5-10 years, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. UPS's ROIC of 10.1% shows moderate capital returns.
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For UPS, the capital structure and equity risk premium determine WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%.
