Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Waste Management · NYSE
Current Price
$218.91
Intrinsic Value
$246.75
+11.3% margin of safety
What Is Republic Services, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-29, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) at $246.75 per share, compared with a market price of $218.91, a margin of safety of +11.3%. The base case assumes 8.7% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $204.62 to $294.77. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) Undervalued?
At $218.91, RSG trades about 11.3% below the base-case intrinsic value estimate. That is a real discount, but it stays short of the 30% margin of safety required before calling a stock undervalued.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑High Barriers to Entry
The waste management industry requires significant capital for infrastructure and permits. This creates a natural barrier for new competitors, protecting established players like Republic Services.
↑Essential Service & Pricing Power
Waste disposal is a non-discretionary service, providing stable demand. Republic Services leverages this essential nature to exert strong pricing power with customers.
↑Scale and Route Density
Republic Services benefits from extensive operational scale and optimized collection routes. This efficiency reduces per-unit costs and enhances profitability compared to smaller rivals.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Regulatory and Environmental Scrutiny
The waste management industry faces ongoing environmental regulations and public scrutiny. Changes in these regulations or incidents could lead to increased compliance costs or operational disruptions.
↓Commodity Price Volatility
Revenue streams can be impacted by fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly for recyclables. This introduces an element of unpredictability to earnings.
↓Technological Disruption in Waste Processing
While AI is mentioned as a growth driver, future technological advancements in waste processing or alternative disposal methods could disrupt traditional models.
Base case
RSG base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$246.75
Margin of safety
+11.3%
Expected annual return
+2.4%
Base case assumptions: 8.7% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 26x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-29.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the RSG valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Republic Services, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for RSGCompany Overview
Republic Services, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, delivers comprehensive environmental services across the United States. The company specializes in the collection and processing of recyclable materials, alongside the gathering, transfer, and responsible disposal of non-hazardous solid waste, in addition to other environmental solutions. Its collection activities encompass curbside pickups, facilitating transport to transfer stations, landfills, or recycling facilities; the provision of waste and recycling containers; and compactor rentals. Beyond collection, Republic Services engages in the processing and sale of commodities such as old corrugated containers, newsprint, aluminum, and glass. The company also operates landfill and transfer services, manages the disposal of non-hazardous solid and liquid industrial waste, and provides on-site logistics and transportation. Serving a broad customer base, including residential, small-container, and large-container clients, Republic Services maintains a vast operational footprint. As of December 31, 2021, this included 356 collection operations, 239 transfer stations, 198 active landfills, 71 recycling processing centers, 6 saltwater disposal wells, 7 deep injection wells, and 3 treatment, recovery, and disposal facilities across 41 states. Furthermore, it oversees 77 landfill gas-to-energy and renewable energy projects and manages 124 closed landfills. The company, founded in 1996, is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Financial Metrics — RSG Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$54.01
FCF/Share (TTM)
$8.39
ROIC (TTM)
8.9%
ROE (TTM)
18.1%
P/FCF
26.0x
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
FCF Yield
3.85%
Debt/Equity
0.05x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, RSG shows a free cash flow per share of $8.39 and a ROIC of 8.9%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 26.0x and FCF yield of 3.85% are important context metrics when evaluating RSG's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of RSG?
Republic Services, Inc. currently generates $8.39 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $218.91, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is RSG undervalued?
RSG trades at a P/FCF ratio of 26.0x with a free cash flow yield of 3.85%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether RSG is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value RSG stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Republic Services, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($8.39) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Waste Management industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting RSG's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.05x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to RSG?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Republic Services, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Waste Management trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. RSG's ROIC of 8.9% shows moderate capital returns.
How does WACC affect RSG stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For RSG, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 13.2x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See RSG PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Industrials valuationsDCF and P/E value RSG with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-29. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.