Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Industrial - Machinery · NYSE
Current Price
$459.34
Intrinsic Value
$477.15
+3.7% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Deep Customer Relationships
Rockwell's integrated solutions and long-standing partnerships create high switching costs for industrial clients. This deep integration fosters loyalty and recurring revenue streams.
↑Brand and Reputation
The Rockwell Automation brand is synonymous with reliability and innovation in industrial automation. This strong reputation commands premium pricing and attracts new customers.
↑Intellectual Property & Expertise
Proprietary technology and deep domain expertise in industrial control and software are difficult for competitors to replicate. This allows Rockwell to offer unique, high-value solutions.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Economic Sensitivity
Demand for industrial machinery is closely tied to global economic cycles and capital expenditure. Downturns can significantly impact sales and profitability.
↓Technological Disruption
Rapid advancements in AI, IoT, and software could disrupt traditional automation models. Rockwell must continuously innovate to stay ahead of emerging technologies.
↓Competition from New Entrants
The growing digital transformation trend may attract new, agile competitors with disruptive business models. Rockwell needs to defend its market share against these threats.
Base case
ROK base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for ROK estimates an intrinsic value of about $477.15 per share, against a current price of $459.34. The model assumes 13.0% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 30x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$477.15
Margin of safety
+3.7%
Expected annual return
+0.8%
Base case assumptions: 13.0% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the ROK valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Rockwell Automation, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for ROKCompany Overview
Rockwell Automation, Inc., established in 1903 and headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is a global leader in providing industrial automation and digital transformation solutions. The company's operations are segmented into three key areas: Intelligent Devices, Software & Control, and Lifecycle Services. The Intelligent Devices segment offers various hardware products such as drives, motion control systems, safety and sensing equipment, industrial components, and customized configurations. The Software & Control division provides essential control and visualization software and accompanying hardware, information management platforms, digital twin and simulation tools, and network and cybersecurity infrastructure. The Lifecycle Services segment completes its offering with expert consulting, professional implementation, and ongoing connected and maintenance support. Rockwell Automation distributes its comprehensive array of hardware, software, and services worldwide through a network of independent distributors, complemented by its direct sales force. Its extensive clientele spans diverse sectors, including discrete manufacturing (like automotive, semiconductors, and logistics), general industries (such as printing, marine, and aerospace), hybrid markets (encompassing food & beverage, life sciences, and eco-industrial applications like water management and renewable energy), and process industries (including oil & gas, mining, and chemicals).
Financial Metrics — ROK Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$78.54
FCF/Share (TTM)
$11.94
ROIC (TTM)
15.9%
ROE (TTM)
30.3%
P/FCF
38.2x
EV/EBITDA
33.1x
FCF Yield
2.62%
Debt/Equity
1.15x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, ROK shows a free cash flow per share of $11.94 and a ROIC of 15.9%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 38.2x and FCF yield of 2.62% are important context metrics when evaluating ROK's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of ROK?
Rockwell Automation, Inc. currently generates $11.94 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $459.34, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is ROK undervalued?
ROK trades at a P/FCF ratio of 38.2x with a free cash flow yield of 2.62%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether ROK is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value ROK stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Rockwell Automation, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($11.94) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Industrial - Machinery industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting ROK's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.15x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to ROK?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Rockwell Automation, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Industrial - Machinery trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. ROK's ROIC of 15.9% indicates strong capital efficiency, which supports higher growth assumptions in the DCF model.
How does WACC affect ROK stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For ROK, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.15x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 33.1x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See ROK PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Industrials valuationsDCF and P/E value ROK with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.