Current Price
$47.56
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Regulated Monopoly Power
NiSource operates as a regulated utility, granting it exclusive rights to provide gas and electric services within its service territories. This regulatory structure creates a significant barrier to entry for competitors.
↑Essential Service Demand
The demand for natural gas and electricity is non-discretionary, ensuring a stable and predictable revenue stream for NiSource. Customers rely on these services for daily life and business operations.
↑Long-Term Infrastructure Investments
NiSource's substantial investments in aging infrastructure, often mandated by regulators, create high switching costs for customers and require significant capital for new entrants to replicate.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Regulatory Uncertainty
Changes in regulatory policies, rate decisions, or environmental mandates can significantly impact NiSource's profitability and operational flexibility. Future rate increases are not guaranteed.
↓Capital Expenditure Needs
The company faces ongoing, substantial capital expenditure requirements for infrastructure upgrades and maintenance. Failure to secure adequate funding or execute these projects efficiently poses a risk.
↓Interest Rate Sensitivity
As a capital-intensive utility, NiSource is sensitive to rising interest rates, which increase the cost of debt financing for its extensive infrastructure projects and can pressure earnings.
Customize the NI valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for NiSource Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for NICompany Overview
NiSource Inc. operates as an energy holding company, primarily functioning as a regulated natural gas and electric utility within the United States. Its business activities are organized into two main divisions: Gas Distribution Operations and Electric Operations. The company's Gas Distribution segment delivers natural gas to approximately 853,000 customers across northern Indiana, and an additional 2.4 million residential, commercial, and industrial clients throughout Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland. This extensive network includes about 54,600 miles of distribution main pipelines and customer service lines, along with 1,000 miles of transmission main pipelines. Through its Electric Operations, NiSource provides electricity to roughly 483,000 customers residing in 20 counties in northern Indiana, while also engaging in wholesale electricity and transmission transactions. The company maintains a diverse portfolio of power generation assets. These include coal-fired plants with capacities of 722 megawatts (MW) in Wheatfield and 455 MW in Michigan City; a 563 MW combined cycle gas turbine facility in West Terre Haute; natural gas generating units providing 155 MW in Wheatfield; hydroelectric plants contributing 9 MW in Carroll County and 7 MW in White County; and wind energy facilities in White County, Indiana, producing 102 MW and 302 MW, respectively. Originally founded in 1847, the company was known as NIPSCO Industries, Inc. before officially changing its name to NiSource Inc. in April 1999. Its corporate headquarters are located in Merrillville, Indiana.
Financial Metrics — NI Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$14.24
FCF/Share (TTM)
$-1.74
ROIC (TTM)
4.7%
ROE (TTM)
10.4%
P/FCF
n/m
EV/EBITDA
12.7x
FCF Yield
-3.65%
Debt/Equity
1.74x
NI currently has negative free cash flow, so cash-flow ratios such as P/FCF and FCF yield do not give a meaningful read on whether the stock is cheap or expensive. A DCF valuation is unreliable until cash generation turns positive — focus on the path to profitability instead.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of NI?
NiSource Inc. currently generates $-1.74 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $47.56, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is NI undervalued?
NI currently has negative free cash flow, so its P/FCF ratio is not meaningful and cannot tell you whether the stock is cheap or expensive. With cash flow negative, a DCF-based undervalued or overvalued judgment is unreliable — look at the path back to positive cash generation instead.
How do I value NI stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on NiSource Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($-1.74) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Regulated Gas industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting NI's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.74x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to NI?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For NiSource Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Regulated Gas trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. NI's ROIC of 4.7% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect NI stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For NI, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.74x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 12.7x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See NI PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Utilities valuationsDCF and P/E value NI with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-15. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.