Ford Motor Company (F) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Auto - Manufacturers · NYSE
Current Price
$14.84
Intrinsic Value
Outside reliable range
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Manufacturing Scale & Cash Flow
Ford leverages its vast manufacturing footprint and diverse product range to generate substantial free cash flow. This scale provides cost advantages and market penetration.
↑Brand Loyalty & Dealer Network
Decades of brand building have fostered strong customer loyalty, particularly in commercial and truck segments. An extensive dealer network ensures widespread service and sales reach.
↑EV Transition Investment
Significant investments in electric vehicle (EV) technology and production capacity position Ford to compete in the evolving automotive landscape. This strategic shift aims to capture future market share.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intense Competition
The automotive industry faces fierce competition from established players and new entrants, pressuring pricing and market share. Rapid technological advancements require continuous innovation.
↓Supply Chain Volatility
Global supply chain disruptions, particularly for semiconductors and raw materials, can significantly impact production volumes and profitability. This remains a persistent challenge.
↓EV Adoption Pace
The speed of consumer adoption of electric vehicles is uncertain and subject to infrastructure development and cost considerations. A slower-than-expected transition could hinder EV profitability.
Base case
F base case valuation
Base case assumptions: 15.0% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 6x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the F valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Ford Motor Company respond.
Open DCF Calculator for FCompany Overview
Ford Motor Company is a global automotive giant, engaged in the design, production, and servicing of a broad spectrum of vehicles. Its product line encompasses Ford trucks, commercial cars and vans, and sport utility vehicles, in addition to luxury models from its Lincoln brand. The company structures its diverse operations into distinct segments: Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, Ford Next, and Ford Credit. Ford distributes its vehicles, service components, and accessories through a worldwide network of distributors and dealerships. It also supplies directly to large organizational clients, including commercial fleet operators, daily rental companies, and government entities, often facilitated by its established dealerships. Beyond manufacturing and sales, Ford provides substantial financial services. This includes offering retail installment contracts for both new and used vehicles, as well as direct financing leases for new vehicles to a wide range of customers – from individual consumers to commercial enterprises such as leasing companies, government agencies, and fleet providers. Furthermore, the company extends wholesale loans to dealers to facilitate inventory purchases. It also offers capital to dealers for operational expenses, facility enhancements, real estate acquisitions, and other business initiatives. Founded in 1903, Ford Motor Company is headquartered in Dearborn, Michigan.
Financial Metrics — F Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$47.57
FCF/Share (TTM)
$2.39
ROIC (TTM)
1.0%
ROE (TTM)
-14.7%
P/FCF
6.1x
EV/EBITDA
271.7x
FCF Yield
16.44%
Debt/Equity
4.20x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, F shows a free cash flow per share of $2.39 and a ROIC of 1.0%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 6.1x and FCF yield of 16.44% are important context metrics when evaluating F's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of F?
Ford Motor Company currently generates $2.39 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $14.84, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is F undervalued?
F trades at a P/FCF ratio of 6.1x with a free cash flow yield of 16.44%. This relatively low P/FCF may suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to its cash generation. However, whether F is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value F stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Ford Motor Company: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($2.39) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Auto - Manufacturers industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting F's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 4.20x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to F?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Ford Motor Company, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Auto - Manufacturers trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. F's ROIC of 1.0% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect F stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For F, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.20x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 271.7x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See F PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Cyclical valuationsDCF and P/E value F with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.