Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Valuation — PE Analysis
Financial - Credit Services · NASDAQ
Current Price
$30.50
PE Ratio (TTM)
59.8x
Intrinsic Value
$42.73
+28.6% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Proprietary AI Lending Platform
Upstart's AI-driven underwriting model aims to approve more borrowers and reduce default rates. This technology is a key differentiator, though its long-term effectiveness is still being proven.
↑Network Effects with Lenders
As more lenders join the Upstart platform, the network becomes more attractive to borrowers and vice versa. This creates a growing ecosystem that can be difficult for new entrants to replicate.
↑Data Advantage
The platform continuously gathers data from loan applications and performance. This data can be used to refine its AI models, potentially leading to better risk assessment over time.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Regulatory and Legal Scrutiny
Recent class action lawsuits highlight significant legal and regulatory risks. These can lead to substantial financial penalties and reputational damage, impacting investor confidence.
↓Dependence on Macroeconomic Conditions
Upstart's success is highly sensitive to interest rate environments and economic downturns. These factors directly impact loan demand and borrower repayment capabilities.
↓Competition and Technological Disruption
The financial technology space is highly competitive. New entrants and advancements in AI, like those from D-Matrix, could challenge Upstart's technological edge.
Base case
UPST base case PE valuation
A base case PE valuation for UPST estimates a fair value of about $42.73 per share, against a current price of $30.5. The model assumes 20.0% annual earnings growth, a 50x target PE multiple, and a 10% discount rate.
Intrinsic Value
$42.73
Margin of safety
+28.6%
Expected annual return
+7.0%
Base case assumptions: 20.0% annual earnings growth, 50x target PE, 10% discount rate, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The fair value changes significantly when the target PE or earnings growth rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the UPST PE valuation
Adjust the target PE, earnings growth, and discount rate to see how the fair value and margin of safety for Upstart Holdings, Inc. respond.
Open PE Calculator for UPSTCompany Overview
Through its various subsidiaries, Upstart Holdings Inc. operates an advanced, cloud-hosted artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform across the United States. This platform is designed to gather consumer loan requests and efficiently connect them with its extensive network of banks that leverage Upstart's AI technology. Established in 2012, the company maintains its primary operational base in San Mateo, California.
Financial Metrics — UPST PE Stock Valuation Data
PE Ratio (TTM)
59.8x
PEG Ratio
0.03
Earnings Yield
1.67%
ROE (TTM)
6.6%
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$12.01
Debt/Equity
2.70x
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the PE ratio of UPST?
The trailing twelve-month PE ratio of UPST reflects how much investors pay per dollar of Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s earnings. This metric is most useful when compared to Financial - Credit Services peers and the company's own historical range.
Is UPST overvalued based on PE ratio?
UPST's PE of 59.8x combined with a PEG ratio of 0.03 provides a growth-adjusted perspective. A PEG below 1.0 suggests UPST may be undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate. Keep in mind that PE-based valuation works best for profitable, mature companies — for high-growth or cyclical Financial - Credit Services, a DCF analysis may be more appropriate.
How do I value UPST stock using PE ratio?
To value Upstart Holdings, Inc. using PE: (1) Compare the current PE (59.8x) against the Financial - Credit Services median to assess relative pricing, (2) check the PEG ratio (0.03) to adjust for growth expectations, (3) review the 5-year PE range to identify where the stock sits historically, and (4) estimate fair value by multiplying a target PE by forward EPS estimates. This relative approach complements DCF's absolute valuation.
What is the PEG ratio of UPST?
UPST's PEG ratio is 0.03, calculated by dividing the PE ratio (59.8x) by the expected earnings growth rate. A PEG below 1.0 is traditionally considered a sign of undervaluation — the market may not be fully pricing in the growth potential. Note that PEG accuracy depends on the reliability of growth estimates.
Should I use PE ratio or DCF for UPST stock valuation?
PE ratio gives a quick relative read — how UPST is priced versus Financial - Credit Services peers. DCF provides an absolute value based on projected free cash flows. For the most reliable valuation, use PE as a quick comparability screen and DCF for a deeper fundamental analysis. Each method has blind spots: PE ignores capital structure and cash flow quality, while DCF is sensitive to growth and discount rate assumptions.
Learn More
- See UPST DCF Valuation → — Intrinsic value via Discounted Cash Flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Step-by-step guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- DCF Methodology — Guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Ratio — Understanding the price-to-earnings ratio
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
Related PE Valuations
All Financial Services valuationsP/E and DCF value UPST with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the DCF intrinsic value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.