Financial - Credit Services · NASDAQ
Current Price
$30.48
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
Run a full DCF analysis on Upstart Holdings, Inc. with auto-filled fundamentals, adjustable assumptions, and sensitivity heatmap.
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. Its platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of the company's AI-enabled bank partners. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
ROIC (TTM)
2.0%
ROE (TTM)
7.3%
FCF Yield
-5.69%
Based on trailing twelve-month data, UPST shows a free cash flow per share of N/A and a ROIC of 2.0%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of N/A and FCF yield of -5.69% are important context metrics when evaluating UPST's stock valuation relative to peers.
The intrinsic value of UPST depends on assumptions about future growth rate, discount rate (WACC), and terminal value. A DCF model discounts projected free cash flows back to present value — small changes in WACC can shift the estimate by 20% or more, which is why sensitivity analysis is essential.
Whether UPST is undervalued depends on comparing the DCF-derived intrinsic value to the current market price of $30.48. A positive margin of safety (intrinsic value above market price) suggests potential undervaluation, but the degree of confidence depends on the reliability of your growth and discount rate assumptions.
To perform a DCF valuation on Upstart Holdings, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Financial - Credit Services industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting UPST's risk profile, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Upstart Holdings, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the Financial - Credit Services will produce over the next 5-10 years, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. UPST's ROIC of 2.0% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For UPST, the capital structure and equity risk premium determine WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%.
