The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Stock Valuation — PE Analysis
Insurance - Property & Casualty · NYSE
Current Price
$203.11
PE Ratio (TTM)
10.3x
Intrinsic Value
$256.54
+20.8% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Telematics Data Advantage
Progressive's extensive use of telematics data provides a significant competitive edge. This allows for more accurate risk assessment and personalized pricing, leading to better underwriting.
↑Scale in Auto Insurance
As the largest private auto insurer, Progressive benefits from economies of scale. This scale allows for greater efficiency in operations and a stronger negotiating position with suppliers.
↑Brand Recognition and Loyalty
Progressive has built a strong brand over decades, fostering customer loyalty. This established reputation makes it harder for new entrants to gain significant market share.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intensifying Competition
The auto insurance market is highly competitive, with new players and technological advancements constantly emerging. This could erode Progressive's market share gains.
↓Regulatory and Legal Changes
The insurance industry is heavily regulated. Unfavorable changes in regulations or significant legal judgments could negatively impact profitability and operations.
↓Economic Sensitivity
Insurance companies are sensitive to economic downturns. Reduced consumer spending or increased claims due to economic hardship can affect financial performance.
Base case
PGR base case PE valuation
A base case PE valuation for PGR estimates a fair value of about $256.54 per share, against a current price of $203.11. The model assumes 6.4% annual earnings growth, a 10x target PE multiple, and a 10% discount rate.
Intrinsic Value
$256.54
Margin of safety
+20.8%
Expected annual return
+4.8%
Base case assumptions: 6.4% annual earnings growth, 10x target PE, 10% discount rate, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The fair value changes significantly when the target PE or earnings growth rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the PGR PE valuation
Adjust the target PE, earnings growth, and discount rate to see how the fair value and margin of safety for The Progressive Corporation respond.
Open PE Calculator for PGRCompany Overview
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commercial property protection, general liability, and various other specialized property-casualty insurance options. The company's operations are structured into three main divisions: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. Within the Personal Lines segment, Progressive provides coverage for individual automobiles and recreational vehicles. Offerings range from standard personal auto policies to specialized options for motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), RVs, watercraft, snowmobiles, and similar forms of personal transport. The Commercial Lines division focuses on providing primary liability and physical damage insurance for business vehicles, alongside general liability and property insurance tailored for commercial applications. This segment insures a diverse array of vehicles, including cars, vans, pickup trucks, and dump trucks for small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks for regional freight, expedited shipping, and long-haul transport companies; heavy-duty vehicles like dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used in industries such as construction, logging, and mining; and tow trucks and wreckers for towing and service stations, as well as various non-fleet taxis and premium car services. The Property segment offers residential insurance solutions for homeowners, other property owners, and renters. Its portfolio further extends to include personal umbrella policies and both primary and excess flood insurance. Beyond underwriting, the company facilitates policy issuance and claims adjusting. It also serves as an agent for various additional insurance products, such as homeowner general liability and workers' compensation, and provides reinsurance services. Progressive's products are distributed through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly to consumers via its online platforms (including mobile access) and telephone channels. Established in 1937, The Progressive Corporation maintains its headquarters in Mayfield, Ohio.
Financial Metrics — PGR PE Stock Valuation Data
PE Ratio (TTM)
10.3x
PEG Ratio
0.32
Earnings Yield
9.72%
ROE (TTM)
35.5%
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$152.71
Dividend Yield
6.84%
Debt/Equity
0.26x
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the PE ratio of PGR?
The trailing twelve-month PE ratio of PGR reflects how much investors pay per dollar of The Progressive Corporation's earnings. This metric is most useful when compared to Insurance - Property & Casualty peers and the company's own historical range.
Is PGR overvalued based on PE ratio?
PGR's PE of 10.3x combined with a PEG ratio of 0.32 provides a growth-adjusted perspective. A PEG below 1.0 suggests PGR may be undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate. Keep in mind that PE-based valuation works best for profitable, mature companies — for high-growth or cyclical Insurance - Property & Casualty, a DCF analysis may be more appropriate.
How do I value PGR stock using PE ratio?
To value The Progressive Corporation using PE: (1) Compare the current PE (10.3x) against the Insurance - Property & Casualty median to assess relative pricing, (2) check the PEG ratio (0.32) to adjust for growth expectations, (3) review the 5-year PE range to identify where the stock sits historically, and (4) estimate fair value by multiplying a target PE by forward EPS estimates. This relative approach complements DCF's absolute valuation.
What is the PEG ratio of PGR?
PGR's PEG ratio is 0.32, calculated by dividing the PE ratio (10.3x) by the expected earnings growth rate. A PEG below 1.0 is traditionally considered a sign of undervaluation — the market may not be fully pricing in the growth potential. Note that PEG accuracy depends on the reliability of growth estimates.
Should I use PE ratio or DCF for PGR stock valuation?
PE ratio gives a quick relative read — how PGR is priced versus Insurance - Property & Casualty peers. DCF provides an absolute value based on projected free cash flows. For PGR, with a strong ROE of 35.5%, both methods are worth using — PE for a market-relative check, DCF to stress-test whether fundamentals justify the price. Each method has blind spots: PE ignores capital structure and cash flow quality, while DCF is sensitive to growth and discount rate assumptions.
Learn More
- See PGR DCF Valuation → — Intrinsic value via Discounted Cash Flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Step-by-step guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- DCF Methodology — Guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Ratio — Understanding the price-to-earnings ratio
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
Related PE Valuations
All Financial Services valuationsP/E and DCF value PGR with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the DCF intrinsic value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.