Insurance - Property & Casualty · NYSE
Current Price
$200.66
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
Run a full DCF analysis on The Progressive Corporation with auto-filled fundamentals, adjustable assumptions, and sensitivity heatmap.
Open DCF Calculator for PGRThe Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.
ROIC (TTM)
12.8%
ROE (TTM)
35.5%
FCF Yield
14.65%
Based on trailing twelve-month data, PGR shows a free cash flow per share of N/A and a ROIC of 12.8%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of N/A and FCF yield of 14.65% are important context metrics when evaluating PGR's stock valuation relative to peers.
The intrinsic value of PGR depends on assumptions about future growth rate, discount rate (WACC), and terminal value. A DCF model discounts projected free cash flows back to present value — small changes in WACC can shift the estimate by 20% or more, which is why sensitivity analysis is essential.
Whether PGR is undervalued depends on comparing the DCF-derived intrinsic value to the current market price of $200.66. A positive margin of safety (intrinsic value above market price) suggests potential undervaluation, but the degree of confidence depends on the reliability of your growth and discount rate assumptions.
To perform a DCF valuation on The Progressive Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Insurance - Property & Casualty industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting PGR's risk profile, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For The Progressive Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the Insurance - Property & Casualty will produce over the next 5-10 years, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. PGR's ROIC of 12.8% shows moderate capital returns.
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For PGR, the capital structure and equity risk premium determine WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%.
