CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Fair Value & PE Analysis
Agricultural Inputs · NYSE
Current Price
$127.61
PE Ratio (TTM)
11.4x
Intrinsic Value
$90.66
-40.8% margin of safety
What Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s Fair Value?
As of 2026-07-30, applying a 11.0x earnings multiple to CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s (CF) earnings per share of $11.4 yields a fair value estimate of $90.66 per share, versus a market price of $127.61.
Fair value from earnings multiples is sensitive to the multiple you choose. Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $69.57 to $115.57. This is a relative estimate anchored to earnings, not a statement of fact. For a cash flow based view, see the intrinsic value estimate on the DCF page.
How the PE model works · Recalculate in PE mode · CF intrinsic value (DCF view)
Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Overvalued?
At $127.61, CF trades above its PE-based fair value estimate, meaning the market pays a premium over the applied earnings multiple. By this model the stock looks expensive unless earnings grow into the price.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Scale and Production Efficiency
CF Industries operates massive, highly efficient nitrogen fertilizer production facilities. This scale provides significant cost advantages over smaller competitors, making it difficult to match their output and pricing.
↑Logistics and Distribution Network
The company possesses an extensive and integrated logistics network, including terminals and transportation assets. This ensures reliable and cost-effective delivery of products to a broad customer base.
↑Capital Intensity and High Barriers
Building new nitrogen fertilizer plants requires immense capital investment and specialized expertise. This high barrier to entry deters new competitors from entering the market and challenging established players.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Environmental Regulations and Carbon Emissions
Increasingly stringent environmental regulations, particularly concerning carbon emissions, could necessitate significant capital expenditures for CF to upgrade facilities or adopt new technologies.
↓Geopolitical Instability and Trade Policies
Global geopolitical events and shifting trade policies can disrupt supply chains, impact raw material availability, and affect international fertilizer demand and pricing.
↓Technological Advancements in Agriculture
Emerging agricultural technologies, such as precision farming and alternative nutrient sources, could potentially reduce the reliance on traditional nitrogen fertilizers over the long term.
Base case
CF base case PE valuation
Intrinsic Value
$90.66
Margin of safety
-40.8%
Expected annual return
-6.6%
Base case assumptions: -6.7% annual earnings growth, 11x target PE, 10% discount rate, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-30.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The fair value changes significantly when the target PE or earnings growth rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the CF PE valuation
Adjust the target PE, earnings growth, and discount rate to see how the fair value and margin of safety for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. respond.
Open PE Calculator for CFCompany Overview
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global producer and distributor of hydrogen and nitrogen-based products. These essential chemicals serve a variety of purposes worldwide, including energy generation, agricultural fertilization, environmental emissions reduction, and numerous other industrial applications. The company's core product lineup features vital nitrogen compounds such as anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and different forms of ammonium nitrate. In addition to these primary offerings, CF Industries also provides specialized chemicals like diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia, alongside complex fertilizers containing nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Its diverse customer base includes agricultural cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, commodity traders, wholesalers, and a wide array of industrial end-users. Founded in 1946, the firm is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
Financial Metrics — CF PE Stock Valuation Data
PE Ratio (TTM)
11.4x
PEG Ratio
0.24
Earnings Yield
8.93%
ROE (TTM)
35.2%
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$48.04
Dividend Yield
1.57%
Debt/Equity
0.68x
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the PE ratio of CF?
The trailing twelve-month PE ratio of CF reflects how much investors pay per dollar of CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s earnings. This metric is most useful when compared to Agricultural Inputs peers and the company's own historical range.
Is CF overvalued based on PE ratio?
CF's PE of 11.4x combined with a PEG ratio of 0.24 provides a growth-adjusted perspective. A PEG below 1.0 means the P/E is low relative to the earnings growth rate. Keep in mind that PE-based valuation works best for profitable, mature companies — for high-growth or cyclical Agricultural Inputs, a DCF analysis may be more appropriate.
How do I value CF stock using PE ratio?
To value CF Industries Holdings, Inc. using PE: (1) Compare the current PE (11.4x) against the Agricultural Inputs median to assess relative pricing, (2) check the PEG ratio (0.24) to adjust for growth expectations, (3) review the 5-year PE range to identify where the stock sits historically, and (4) estimate fair value by multiplying a target PE by forward EPS estimates. This relative approach complements DCF's absolute valuation.
What is the PEG ratio of CF?
CF's PEG ratio is 0.24, calculated by dividing the PE ratio (11.4x) by the expected earnings growth rate. A PEG below 1.0 means the P/E is low relative to the expected earnings growth rate. Note that PEG accuracy depends on the reliability of growth estimates.
Should I use PE ratio or DCF for CF stock valuation?
PE ratio gives a quick relative read — how CF is priced versus Agricultural Inputs peers. DCF provides an absolute value based on projected free cash flows. For CF, with a strong ROE of 35.2%, both methods are worth using — PE for a market-relative check, DCF to stress-test whether fundamentals justify the price. Each method has blind spots: PE ignores capital structure and cash flow quality, while DCF is sensitive to growth and discount rate assumptions.
Learn More
- See CF DCF Valuation → — Intrinsic value via Discounted Cash Flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Step-by-step guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- DCF Methodology — Guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Ratio — Understanding the price-to-earnings ratio
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
Related PE Valuations
All Basic Materials valuationsP/E and DCF value CF with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the DCF intrinsic value.
Price as of 2026-07-30. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.