CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Agricultural Inputs · NYSE
Current Price
$109.48
Intrinsic Value
$89.95
-21.7% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Scale and Distribution Network
CF's extensive manufacturing capacity and established distribution network create significant barriers to entry. This allows for efficient delivery of essential agricultural inputs across vast regions.
↑Cost Advantage in Production
Access to low-cost natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogen production, provides CF with a structural cost advantage. This is crucial in a commodity-driven market.
↑Essential Product Demand
Nitrogen fertilizers are critical for global food production, ensuring consistent demand regardless of economic cycles. This underpins CF's long-term market position.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Commodity Price Volatility
CF's profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuations in nitrogen and natural gas prices. Unexpected drops can significantly impact earnings and cash flow.
↓Regulatory and Environmental Scrutiny
The agricultural input industry faces increasing environmental regulations and scrutiny. Changes in policy could lead to higher operating costs or impact production.
↓Intense Competition
The nitrogen fertilizer market is competitive, with global players vying for market share. New capacity or aggressive pricing from competitors can pressure margins.
Base case
CF base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for CF estimates an intrinsic value of about $89.95 per share, against a current price of $109.48. The model assumes -3.8% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 10x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$89.95
Margin of safety
-21.7%
Expected annual return
-3.9%
Base case assumptions: -3.8% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 10x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the CF valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for CFCompany Overview
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global producer and distributor of hydrogen and nitrogen-based products. These essential chemicals serve a variety of purposes worldwide, including energy generation, agricultural fertilization, environmental emissions reduction, and numerous other industrial applications. The company's core product lineup features vital nitrogen compounds such as anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and different forms of ammonium nitrate. In addition to these primary offerings, CF Industries also provides specialized chemicals like diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia, alongside complex fertilizers containing nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Its diverse customer base includes agricultural cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, commodity traders, wholesalers, and a wide array of industrial end-users. Founded in 1946, the firm is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
Financial Metrics — CF Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$48.04
FCF/Share (TTM)
$10.51
ROIC (TTM)
15.4%
ROE (TTM)
35.2%
P/FCF
10.4x
EV/EBITDA
5.0x
FCF Yield
9.64%
Debt/Equity
0.68x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, CF shows a free cash flow per share of $10.51 and a ROIC of 15.4%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 10.4x and FCF yield of 9.64% are important context metrics when evaluating CF's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of CF?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. currently generates $10.51 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $109.48, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is CF undervalued?
CF trades at a P/FCF ratio of 10.4x with a free cash flow yield of 9.64%. This relatively low P/FCF may suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to its cash generation. However, whether CF is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value CF stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on CF Industries Holdings, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($10.51) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Agricultural Inputs industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting CF's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.68x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to CF?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For CF Industries Holdings, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Agricultural Inputs trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. CF's ROIC of 15.4% indicates strong capital efficiency, which supports higher growth assumptions in the DCF model.
How does WACC affect CF stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For CF, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.68x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 5.0x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See CF PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Basic Materials valuationsDCF and P/E value CF with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.