Agricultural Inputs · NYSE
Current Price
$126.78
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
Run a full DCF analysis on CF Industries Holdings, Inc. with auto-filled fundamentals, adjustable assumptions, and sensitivity heatmap.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
ROIC (TTM)
15.7%
ROE (TTM)
30.0%
FCF Yield
9.25%
Based on trailing twelve-month data, CF shows a free cash flow per share of N/A and a ROIC of 15.7%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of N/A and FCF yield of 9.25% are important context metrics when evaluating CF's stock valuation relative to peers.
The intrinsic value of CF depends on assumptions about future growth rate, discount rate (WACC), and terminal value. A DCF model discounts projected free cash flows back to present value — small changes in WACC can shift the estimate by 20% or more, which is why sensitivity analysis is essential.
Whether CF is undervalued depends on comparing the DCF-derived intrinsic value to the current market price of $126.78. A positive margin of safety (intrinsic value above market price) suggests potential undervaluation, but the degree of confidence depends on the reliability of your growth and discount rate assumptions.
To perform a DCF valuation on CF Industries Holdings, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Agricultural Inputs industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting CF's risk profile, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For CF Industries Holdings, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the Agricultural Inputs will produce over the next 5-10 years, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. CF's ROIC of 15.7% indicates strong capital efficiency, which supports higher growth assumptions in the DCF model.
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For CF, the capital structure and equity risk premium determine WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%.
