Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Software - Application · NASDAQ
Current Price
$104.28
Intrinsic Value
$166.76
+37.5% margin of safety
What Is Atlassian Corporation's Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-29, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) at $166.76 per share, compared with a market price of $104.28, a margin of safety of +37.5%. The base case assumes 16.3% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $137.06 to $200.49. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) Undervalued?
At the current price of $104.28, TEAM trades well below the base-case intrinsic value estimate, a margin of safety above 30%. By this model the stock looks undervalued, but verify the growth assumptions match your own view before acting.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Jira Ecosystem Lock-in
Jira's extensive integrations and add-ons create significant switching costs for development teams. This deep integration fosters a sticky ecosystem that is difficult for competitors to replicate.
↑Brand and Developer Community
Atlassian has cultivated a strong brand reputation within the developer community. This loyalty is reinforced by a vast network of users and contributors who actively shape and support its products.
↑AI-Native Development Integration
Atlassian's early integration of AI into its core products like Jira positions it to capture future developer workflows. This proactive approach creates a technological advantage and deepens user reliance.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intensifying Cloud Competition
The cloud software market is highly competitive, with established players and emerging startups vying for market share. Atlassian faces constant pressure to innovate and maintain its growth trajectory.
↓Customer Concentration in Enterprise
While growing, a significant portion of Atlassian's revenue may come from a smaller number of large enterprise clients. Losing even one major customer could materially impact financial results.
↓Execution of AI Strategy
The success of Atlassian's AI strategy hinges on effective implementation and adoption by its user base. Any missteps in product development or market positioning could hinder its AI-driven growth.
Base case
TEAM base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$166.76
Margin of safety
+37.5%
Expected annual return
+9.8%
Base case assumptions: 16.3% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 23x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-29.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the TEAM valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Atlassian Corporation respond.
Open DCF Calculator for TEAMCompany Overview
Atlassian Corporation, operating globally via its subsidiaries, specializes in creating, distributing, and supporting a diverse range of software solutions. Its extensive product suite features Jira Software and Jira Work Management, comprehensive project management platforms enabling technical and business teams to efficiently plan, organize, monitor, and execute tasks. Confluence serves as a collaborative workspace, centralizing knowledge to advance team efforts, while Trello provides a flexible tool for teams to structure and manage dynamic, rapidly evolving projects. Additionally, Atlassian provides Jira Service Management, an adaptable service desk solution empowering IT, legal, HR, and other service teams to deliver and oversee exceptional service experiences. Another key offering is Jira Align, an enterprise agility platform crafted to assist businesses in navigating dynamic market conditions by prioritizing value generation. Furthermore, its offerings include Bitbucket, an enterprise-grade Git repository management system facilitating professional development teams in collaborating on, managing, and deploying high-quality code. Atlassian Access provides robust, enterprise-wide security and centralized administration, enhancing data governance across its entire suite of cloud products. The portfolio also contains Jira Product, a dedicated tool for prioritizing and mapping out product roadmaps. The company's diverse portfolio extends to Atlas, a teamwork directory; Bamboo, a continuous delivery pipeline; Crowd for single sign-on capabilities; Crucible for collaborative code reviews; Fisheye, a tool to search, track, and visualize code changes; and Compass, a developer experience platform. Other notable products encompass Opsgenie, for on-call and alert management; Sourcetree, a free Git client for Windows and Mac; Statuspage, for real-time status communication to users; and Beacon, an intelligent threat detection system. Established in 2002, Atlassian Corporation maintains its headquarters in Sydney, Australia.
Financial Metrics — TEAM Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$23.72
FCF/Share (TTM)
$4.62
ROIC (TTM)
-9.7%
ROE (TTM)
-16.7%
P/FCF
22.7x
EV/EBITDA
-1405.8x
FCF Yield
4.40%
Debt/Equity
1.41x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, TEAM generates free cash flow per share of $4.62 alongside a ROIC of -9.7%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 22.7x and FCF yield of 4.40% then frame how TEAM is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of TEAM?
Atlassian Corporation currently generates $4.62 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $104.28, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is TEAM undervalued?
TEAM trades at a P/FCF ratio of 22.7x with a free cash flow yield of 4.40%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether TEAM is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value TEAM stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Atlassian Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($4.62) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Software - Application industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting TEAM's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.41x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to TEAM?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Atlassian Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Software - Application trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. TEAM's ROIC of -9.7% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect TEAM stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For TEAM, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.41x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of -1405.8x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See TEAM PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Technology valuationsDCF and P/E value TEAM with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-29. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.