Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Beverages - Alcoholic · NYSE
Current Price
$131.75
Intrinsic Value
$151.36
+13.0% margin of safety
What Is Constellation Brands, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-29, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) at $151.36 per share, compared with a market price of $131.75, a margin of safety of +13.0%. The base case assumes 5.4% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $115.66 to $192.87. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Undervalued?
At $131.75, STZ trades about 13.0% below the base-case intrinsic value estimate. That is a real discount, but it stays short of the 30% margin of safety required before calling a stock undervalued.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Strong Brand Portfolio
Constellation Brands owns iconic brands like Corona and Modelo, fostering significant consumer loyalty and pricing power within the alcoholic beverage market.
↑Extensive Distribution Network
The company benefits from a vast and established distribution network across the U.S., creating high barriers to entry for smaller competitors.
↑Scale and Efficiency
Its large operational scale allows for cost efficiencies in production and marketing, translating into a competitive cost advantage.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intense Competition
The alcoholic beverage industry is highly competitive, with both large established players and nimble craft producers vying for market share.
↓Regulatory Environment
Changes in alcohol taxation, distribution laws, and marketing regulations can significantly impact profitability and operational flexibility.
↓Economic Sensitivity
Consumer spending on premium beverages is often discretionary and can be negatively affected by economic downturns or inflation.
Base case
STZ base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$151.36
Margin of safety
+13.0%
Expected annual return
+2.8%
Base case assumptions: 5.4% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 12x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-29.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the STZ valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Constellation Brands, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for STZCompany Overview
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. The company offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Hard Seltzer, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Corona Refresca, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Oro, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brands. It also offers wine under the Cook’s California Champagne, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, Schrader, and The Prisoner Wine Company brands; and spirits under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson’s Green Brier, and SVEDKA brands. The company provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise locations, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Rochester, New York.
Financial Metrics — STZ Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$52.60
FCF/Share (TTM)
$10.65
ROIC (TTM)
10.9%
ROE (TTM)
23.1%
P/FCF
12.3x
EV/EBITDA
10.0x
FCF Yield
8.15%
Debt/Equity
1.28x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, STZ generates free cash flow per share of $10.65 alongside a ROIC of 10.9%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 12.3x and FCF yield of 8.15% then frame how STZ is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of STZ?
Constellation Brands, Inc. currently generates $10.65 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $131.75, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is STZ undervalued?
STZ trades at a P/FCF ratio of 12.3x with a free cash flow yield of 8.15%. A low P/FCF means investors are paying less per dollar of free cash flow; whether that is cheap depends on the company's growth, cyclicality, and capital intensity. However, whether STZ is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value STZ stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Constellation Brands, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($10.65) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Beverages - Alcoholic industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting STZ's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.28x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to STZ?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Constellation Brands, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Beverages - Alcoholic trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. STZ's ROIC of 10.9% shows moderate capital returns.
How does WACC affect STZ stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For STZ, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.28x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 10.0x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See STZ PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Defensive valuationsDCF and P/E value STZ with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-29. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.