Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Computer Hardware · NASDAQ
Current Price
$667.85
Intrinsic Value
$1,067.36
+37.4% margin of safety
What Is Seagate Technology Holdings plc's Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-10-27, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) at $1,067.36 per share, compared with a market price of $667.85, a margin of safety of +37.4%. The base case assumes 20.0% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $899.15 to $1,256.7. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) Undervalued?
At the current price of $667.85, STX trades well below the base-case intrinsic value estimate, a margin of safety above 30%. By this model the stock looks undervalued, but verify the growth assumptions match your own view before acting.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Scale and Manufacturing Expertise
Seagate's massive production scale and deep manufacturing expertise create significant barriers to entry for new competitors in the high-capacity hard drive market.
↑Established Customer Relationships
Long-standing relationships with major cloud providers and enterprise clients foster loyalty and provide a stable demand base for Seagate's products.
↑Product Innovation and Density
Continuous innovation, like the 44TB Mozaic 4 drives, allows Seagate to offer higher storage densities, driving profitability and customer adoption.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Reliance on global supply chains for components makes Seagate susceptible to disruptions, as seen with potential impacts from Toshiba's capacity expansion.
↓AI Trade Volatility
The recent sell-off in AI-related stocks, including Seagate, highlights the market's sensitivity to sentiment and potential overvaluation concerns.
↓Customer Concentration
While relationships are strong, significant reliance on a few large cloud customers could pose a risk if any one of them shifts strategy.
Base case
STX base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$1,067.36
Margin of safety
+37.4%
Expected annual return
+9.8%
Base case assumptions: 20.0% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-10-27.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the STX valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Seagate Technology Holdings plc respond.
Open DCF Calculator for STXCompany Overview
Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The company's extensive product portfolio encompasses a wide array of mass capacity storage offerings. These include enterprise-grade nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), solid-state drives (SSDs), and complete enterprise nearline systems, alongside specialized HDDs for video and imaging, and network-attached storage (NAS) drives. Beyond these, Seagate also supports legacy systems with Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs. Its consumer-focused segment features external storage devices sold under popular lines such as Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, and Expansion, as well as the premium LaCie brand. The company's product range further extends to internal desktop and notebook drives, HDDs for digital video recorders (DVRs), and high-performance gaming SSDs. Moreover, Seagate delivers the Lyve edge-to-cloud platform, an innovative solution designed for managing and transferring vast amounts of data. Its clientele primarily consists of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors, and retailers. Established in 1978, Seagate Technology Holdings plc continues to be a leader in the data storage industry.
Financial Metrics — STX Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$60.52
FCF/Share (TTM)
$20.13
ROIC (TTM)
64.4%
ROE (TTM)
245.1%
P/FCF
33.1x
EV/EBITDA
27.1x
FCF Yield
3.02%
Debt/Equity
0.00x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, STX generates free cash flow per share of $20.13 alongside a ROIC of 64.4%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 33.1x and FCF yield of 3.02% then frame how STX is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of STX?
Seagate Technology Holdings plc currently generates $20.13 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $667.85, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is STX undervalued?
STX trades at a P/FCF ratio of 33.1x with a free cash flow yield of 3.02%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether STX is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value STX stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Seagate Technology Holdings plc: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($20.13) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Computer Hardware industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting STX's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.00x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to STX?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Seagate Technology Holdings plc, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Computer Hardware trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. STX's ROIC of 64.4% reflects how efficiently the company converts invested capital into profit.
How does WACC affect STX stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For STX, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 27.1x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See STX PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Technology valuationsDCF and P/E value STX with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-10-27. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.