Regulated Water · NASDAQ
当前价格
$54.86
内在价值
使用下方计算器估算
SJW Group, through its subsidiaries, provides water utility services in the United States. It engages in the production, purchase, storage, purification, distribution, wholesale, and retail sale of water and wastewater services. The company also provides non-tariffed services, including water system operations, maintenance agreements, and antenna site leases; contracted services and sewer operations to water utilities; and a Linebacker protection plan for public drinking water customers in Connecticut and Maine. Its water supply consists of groundwater from wells, surface water from watershed run-off and diversion, reclaimed water, and imported water purchased from the Santa Clara Valley Water District. The company offers water service to approximately 231,000 connections that serve approximately one million people residing in portions of the cities of San Jose and Cupertino, as well as in the cities of Campbell, Monte Sereno, Saratoga, and the Town of Los Gatos; and adjacent unincorporated territories in the County of Santa Clara in the State of California. In addition, it provides water service to approximately 140,000 connections, which serve approximately 456,000 people in 81 municipalities with a service area comprising approximately 269 square miles throughout Connecticut and Maine, as well as approximately 24,000 connections that serve approximately 70,000 people in a service area comprising approximately 266 square miles in the region between San Antonio and Austin, Texas; and approximately 3,000 wastewater connections in Southbury, Connecticut. Further, the company owns undeveloped land in California and Tennessee; and owns and operates commercial buildings and warehouse properties in Tennessee. The company was formerly known as SJW Corp. and changed its name to SJW Group in November 2016. SJW Group was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
ROIC (TTM)
3.1%
ROE (TTM)
6.6%
FCF Yield
1.36%
基于过去 12 个月的数据，SJW 每股自由现金流为 N/A，投入资本回报率（ROIC）为 3.1%，这些是使用 DCF 方法进行股票估值的关键输入。P/FCF 比率为 N/A，FCF 收益率为 1.36%，是评估 SJW 相对估值的重要参考指标。
SJW 的内在价值取决于未来增长率、折现率（WACC）和终值假设。DCF 模型将预期自由现金流折现回现值——WACC 的小幅变化可能导致估算偏移 20% 以上，因此敏感性分析至关重要。
SJW 是否被低估取决于 DCF 内在价值与当前市价 $54.86 的比较。正的安全边际（内在价值高于市价）暗示潜在低估，但置信度取决于增长率和折现率假设的可靠性。
对 SJW Group 进行 DCF 估值的步骤：(1) 以过去 12 个月每股自由现金流为基础，(2) 根据Regulated Water行业趋势和公司基本面预测未来 5-10 年的 FCF 增长，(3) 选择反映 SJW 风险的折现率（WACC），(4) 加上预测期之后的终值。
DCF（折现现金流）根据公司未来的现金产生能力估算其当前价值。对于 SJW Group，这意味着预测Regulated Water在未来 5-10 年能产生多少自由现金流，再折现到今天的价值。SJW 的 ROIC 为 3.1%，表明公司可能面临产生超过资本成本回报的挑战。
WACC（加权平均资本成本）是 DCF 模型中的折现率——反映投资者要求的最低回报。对于 SJW，资本结构和股权风险溢价决定了 WACC。WACC 每提高 1%，内在价值通常下降 10-15%。
