Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Biotechnology · NASDAQ
Current Price
$56.71
Intrinsic Value
Use the calculator below to estimate
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑mRNA Platform Technology
Moderna possesses a proprietary mRNA platform that enables rapid vaccine and therapeutic development. This technological foundation offers a significant first-mover advantage in novel applications.
↑COVID-19 Vaccine Dominance
The company's established global supply chain and brand recognition from its COVID-19 vaccine create substantial barriers to entry for competitors. This success provides significant capital for further R&D.
↑Expanding Pipeline & Partnerships
Moderna's growing pipeline across various therapeutic areas, coupled with strategic partnerships, diversifies its revenue streams and strengthens its market position. The RSV vaccine contract exemplifies this expansion.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Pipeline Success Uncertainty
While Moderna has a promising pipeline, the inherent risks of drug development mean that many candidates may fail in clinical trials. This could significantly impact future revenue projections.
↓Pricing and Reimbursement Challenges
Securing favorable pricing and reimbursement for new vaccines and therapies can be challenging, especially in diverse global markets. This could limit the profitability of its products.
↓Dependence on Future Viral Threats
A significant portion of Moderna's current success is tied to its COVID-19 vaccine. Future revenue may be vulnerable to the emergence of new viral threats and the demand for related vaccines.
Customize the MRNA valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Moderna, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for MRNACompany Overview
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines. Its extensive research and development efforts target a broad spectrum of medical needs, including infectious diseases, cancer immunology, rare conditions, cardiovascular ailments, and autoimmune disorders, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and other global markets. The company's diverse product pipeline encompasses various vaccine candidates: those for respiratory illnesses like COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); latent viral infections such as cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), and varicella-zoster virus (VZV); and public health threats like Zika and Nipah. Additionally, Moderna is advancing systemic secreted and cell surface-targeted therapeutics, an array of cancer vaccines (including personalized, KRAS, and checkpoint varieties), intratumoral immuno-oncology products, localized regenerative treatments, systemic intracellular medicines, and inhaled pulmonary solutions. Moderna maintains strategic alliances with several prominent entities, including AstraZeneca PLC, Merck & Co., Inc., Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited, Carisma Therapeutics, Inc., Metagenomi, Inc., the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), the Institute for Life Changing Medicines, and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. It also holds a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. Founded in 2010 as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc., the company officially became Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Its corporate headquarters are located in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Financial Metrics — MRNA Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$5.63
FCF/Share (TTM)
$-4.01
ROIC (TTM)
-37.3%
ROE (TTM)
-36.7%
P/FCF
n/m
EV/EBITDA
-7.6x
FCF Yield
-7.03%
Debt/Equity
0.18x
MRNA currently has negative free cash flow, so cash-flow ratios such as P/FCF and FCF yield do not give a meaningful read on whether the stock is cheap or expensive. A DCF valuation is unreliable until cash generation turns positive — focus on the path to profitability instead.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of MRNA?
Moderna, Inc. currently generates $-4.01 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $56.71, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is MRNA undervalued?
MRNA currently has negative free cash flow, so its P/FCF ratio is not meaningful and cannot tell you whether the stock is cheap or expensive. With cash flow negative, a DCF-based undervalued or overvalued judgment is unreliable — look at the path back to positive cash generation instead.
How do I value MRNA stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Moderna, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($-4.01) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Biotechnology industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting MRNA's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.18x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to MRNA?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Moderna, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Biotechnology trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. MRNA's ROIC of -37.3% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect MRNA stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For MRNA, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of -7.6x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See MRNA PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Healthcare valuationsDCF and P/E value MRNA with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-30. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.