Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · NASDAQ
Current Price
$92.83
Intrinsic Value
$81.17
-14.4% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Global Brand Recognition
Monster's strong brand equity and widespread global recognition drive consumer preference. This allows for premium pricing and sustained demand across diverse markets.
↑International Growth Momentum
Significant international sales growth, particularly in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, demonstrates expanding market penetration. This diversification reduces reliance on any single region.
↑Product Innovation Pipeline
Continuous introduction of new flavors and product lines keeps the brand fresh and appeals to evolving consumer tastes. This adaptability is key in the dynamic beverage market.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Intense Competition
The non-alcoholic beverage market is highly competitive with numerous established players and emerging brands. This can pressure pricing and market share.
↓Regulatory Scrutiny
Energy drinks face ongoing scrutiny regarding health impacts and marketing practices. Potential new regulations could impact product formulations or sales channels.
↓Input Cost Volatility
Fluctuations in the cost of key ingredients like sugar, caffeine, and packaging materials can impact profit margins. Supply chain disruptions could also pose a challenge.
Base case
MNST base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for MNST estimates an intrinsic value of about $81.17 per share, against a current price of $92.83. The model assumes 12.1% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 30x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$81.17
Margin of safety
-14.4%
Expected annual return
-2.6%
Base case assumptions: 12.1% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 30x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the MNST valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Monster Beverage Corporation respond.
Open DCF Calculator for MNSTCompany Overview
Monster Beverage Corporation is a global entity primarily involved in the innovation, marketing, sale, and distribution of energy beverages and concentrates. Its business operations are categorized into three main divisions: Monster Energy Drinks, Strategic Brands, and a segment designated as "Other." The company boasts an extensive product portfolio, encompassing a wide array of carbonated energy drinks, alongside various non-carbonated options. These include ready-to-drink iced teas, lemonades, diverse juice cocktails, single-serving juices, and fruit beverages. Additionally, their offerings extend to ready-to-drink dairy and coffee-based concoctions, specialized sports drinks, single-serve still waters, and a selection of sodas described as natural, sparkling juices, and flavored sparkling beverages. Monster Beverage distributes its products through a comprehensive network, supplying bottlers and full-service beverage distributors. They also engage in direct sales to a multitude of retail outlets, including grocery and specialty chains, wholesalers, club stores, mass merchandisers, convenience stores, pharmacies, foodservice clients, value retailers, e-commerce platforms, and military establishments. Furthermore, the company provides concentrates and beverage bases to its authorized bottling and canning partners. Under its corporate umbrella, the company manages a vast collection of brands. Notable examples include the Monster Energy line (e.g., Monster Energy, Monster Energy Ultra, Monster Rehab, Monster Energy Nitro), Java Monster, Muscle Monster, Espresso Monster, Punch Monster, Juice Monster, and the Monster Hydro series (Energy Water, Super Sport, Super Fuel). Other significant brands feature Monster Dragon Tea, Reign Total Body Fuel, Reign Inferno Thermogenic Fuel, NOS, Full Throttle, Burn, Mother, Nalu, Ultra Energy, Play and Power Play (stylized), Relentless, BPM, BU, Gladiator, Samurai, Live+, Predator, Fury, and True North. Founded in 1985 under its previous name, Hansen Natural Corporation, the company rebranded to Monster Beverage Corporation in January 2012. Its corporate headquarters are located in Corona, California.
Financial Metrics — MNST Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$8.99
FCF/Share (TTM)
$2.12
ROIC (TTM)
21.9%
ROE (TTM)
25.5%
P/FCF
43.8x
EV/EBITDA
32.0x
FCF Yield
2.28%
Debt/Equity
0.00x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, MNST shows a free cash flow per share of $2.12 and a ROIC of 21.9%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 43.8x and FCF yield of 2.28% are important context metrics when evaluating MNST's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of MNST?
Monster Beverage Corporation currently generates $2.12 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $92.83, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is MNST undervalued?
MNST trades at a P/FCF ratio of 43.8x with a free cash flow yield of 2.28%. This elevated P/FCF suggests the market is pricing in significant future growth. However, whether MNST is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value MNST stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Monster Beverage Corporation: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($2.12) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting MNST's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.00x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to MNST?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Monster Beverage Corporation, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Beverages - Non-Alcoholic trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. MNST's ROIC of 21.9% indicates strong capital efficiency, which supports higher growth assumptions in the DCF model.
How does WACC affect MNST stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For MNST, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 32.0x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See MNST PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Defensive valuationsDCF and P/E value MNST with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.