Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · NYSE
Current Price
$148.51
Intrinsic Value
$169.61
+12.4% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Strong Brand Portfolio
Constellation Brands owns a portfolio of well-established and popular brands across wine, spirits, and beer. These brands benefit from consumer loyalty and recognition, creating a barrier to entry for new competitors.
↑Distribution Network
The company possesses an extensive and efficient distribution network across key markets. This allows for broad product availability and strong relationships with retailers, making it difficult for rivals to match their reach.
↑Scale and Efficiency
Constellation's large scale of operations provides cost advantages in production, procurement, and marketing. This operational efficiency helps maintain competitive pricing and profitability.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Shifting Consumer Habits
Evolving consumer preferences towards healthier options or different beverage categories pose a risk. Constellation must adapt its product offerings to remain relevant and capture changing market demands.
↓Inflationary Pressures
Rising costs for raw materials, labor, and transportation can impact profit margins. The company's ability to pass these costs onto consumers without significantly affecting demand is a key challenge.
↓Market Saturation
The beverage industry, particularly in certain segments, can become saturated with numerous brands and products. Intense competition can lead to price wars and slower growth.
Base case
STZ base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for STZ estimates an intrinsic value of about $169.61 per share, against a current price of $148.51. The model assumes 6.2% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 14x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$169.61
Margin of safety
+12.4%
Expected annual return
+2.7%
Base case assumptions: 6.2% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 14x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-06-12.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the STZ valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Constellation Brands, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for STZCompany Overview
Constellation Brands, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, is a global producer, importer, and distributor of a diverse range of beer, wine, and spirits. The company's extensive market presence spans the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. Its prominent beer brands include Corona Extra, Corona Premier, Corona Familiar, Corona Light, Corona Refresca, Corona Hard Seltzer, Modelo Especial, Modelo Negra, Modelo Chelada, Pacifico, and Victoria. Within its wine portfolio, consumers can find labels such as 7 Moons, Cook's California Champagne, Cooper & Thief, Crafters Union, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, The Dreaming Tree, Charles Smith, The Prisoner Wine Company, Robert Mondavi, My Favorite Neighbor, and Schrader. The spirits division encompasses brands like Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson's Green Brier, and SVEDKA. The company's products are supplied to various outlets, including wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise establishments, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Founded in 1945, Constellation Brands, Inc. is headquartered in Victor, New York.
Financial Metrics — STZ Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$52.68
FCF/Share (TTM)
$10.34
ROIC (TTM)
10.5%
ROE (TTM)
22.1%
P/FCF
14.2x
EV/EBITDA
11.6x
FCF Yield
7.04%
Debt/Equity
1.39x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, STZ shows a free cash flow per share of $10.34 and a ROIC of 10.5%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 14.2x and FCF yield of 7.04% are important context metrics when evaluating STZ's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of STZ?
Constellation Brands, Inc. currently generates $10.34 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $148.51, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is STZ undervalued?
STZ trades at a P/FCF ratio of 14.2x with a free cash flow yield of 7.04%. This relatively low P/FCF may suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to its cash generation. However, whether STZ is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value STZ stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Constellation Brands, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($10.34) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting STZ's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 1.39x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to STZ?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Constellation Brands, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. STZ's ROIC of 10.5% shows moderate capital returns.
How does WACC affect STZ stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For STZ, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.39x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 11.6x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See STZ PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Consumer Defensive valuationsDCF and P/E value STZ with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-06-12. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.