Medtronic plc (MDT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation
Medical - Devices · NYSE
Current Price
$85.60
Intrinsic Value
$94.52
+9.4% margin of safety
What Is Medtronic plc's Intrinsic Value?
As of 2026-07-30, the base-case DCF model estimates the intrinsic value of Medtronic plc (MDT) at $94.52 per share, compared with a market price of $85.6, a margin of safety of +9.4%. The base case assumes 7.3% annual free cash flow growth and a 10.0% discount rate.
Across the sensitivity grid the estimate spans $76.52 to $115.18. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on assumptions, not a fact. A higher discount rate or slower growth pushes the estimate down, while stronger cash flow growth lifts it.
How the DCF works · Recalculate with your own assumptions · What is intrinsic value?
Is Medtronic plc (MDT) Undervalued?
At $85.6, MDT trades about 9.4% below the base-case intrinsic value estimate. That is a real discount, but it stays short of the 30% margin of safety required before calling a stock undervalued.
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Established Brand & Global Reach
Medtronic's long-standing reputation and extensive global distribution network create significant barriers to entry for new competitors. This allows them to reach a vast customer base efficiently.
↑Product Diversification & Innovation Pipeline
A broad portfolio across multiple therapeutic areas reduces reliance on any single product. Continuous investment in R&D fuels a pipeline of new devices, ensuring ongoing relevance.
↑Regulatory Expertise & Approvals
Navigating complex global regulatory pathways for medical devices requires deep expertise. Medtronic's experience and established relationships streamline product approvals.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Product Recalls & Litigation
Past product recalls and ongoing litigation can lead to significant financial costs and reputational damage. This uncertainty impacts investor confidence.
↓Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Global supply chain disruptions can impact manufacturing and product availability. Reliance on specific components or regions creates operational risks.
↓Healthcare Policy & Reimbursement Changes
Changes in government healthcare policies and reimbursement rates can affect demand and profitability. This regulatory environment introduces significant uncertainty.
Base case
MDT base case valuation
Intrinsic Value
$94.52
Margin of safety
+9.4%
Expected annual return
+2.0%
Base case assumptions: 7.3% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 20x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-07-30.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the MDT valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Medtronic plc respond.
Open DCF Calculator for MDTCompany Overview
Medtronic plc is a leading global medical technology enterprise that invents, develops, manufactures, and distributes an extensive range of device-based medical therapies. These solutions serve healthcare systems, clinicians, physicians, and patients across the world. The company's operations are categorized into several key portfolios: Cardiovascular Portfolio: This segment focuses on cardiac health, providing technologies for heart rhythm management, including implantable pacemakers, defibrillators, and monitoring systems, alongside cardiac ablation tools and remote patient software. It also addresses structural heart issues with products like aortic and pulmonary valves, surgical repair devices, and endovascular stent grafts, in addition to offerings for percutaneous coronary interventions (e.g., angioplasty balloons). Medical Surgical Portfolio: Offering a broad spectrum of surgical instruments and therapies, this division includes staples, vessel sealing devices, wound closure products, and electrosurgical equipment. It also pioneers surgical artificial intelligence and robotic-assisted platforms, alongside solutions for hernia repair, gynecology, lung conditions, minimally invasive gastrointestinal and hepatologic diagnostics, patient monitoring, airway management, ventilation therapies, and renal disease. Neuroscience Portfolio: This division delivers specialized products for a diverse group of medical professionals, such as spinal surgeons, neurosurgeons, neurologists, pain management specialists, and ENT experts. Its offerings span energy surgical instruments, advanced image-guided and intra-operative imaging systems, robotic guidance for spine procedures, and therapies targeting the brain's vasculature. Diabetes Operating Unit: Dedicated to diabetes management, this unit provides innovative solutions like insulin pumps and their associated consumables, continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems, and smart insulin pen technologies. Established in 1949, Medtronic plc maintains its corporate headquarters in Dublin, Ireland.
Financial Metrics — MDT Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$28.37
FCF/Share (TTM)
$4.23
ROIC (TTM)
6.1%
ROE (TTM)
9.8%
P/FCF
20.2x
EV/EBITDA
14.0x
FCF Yield
4.95%
Debt/Equity
0.57x
On a trailing twelve-month basis, MDT generates free cash flow per share of $4.23 alongside a ROIC of 6.1%, both central inputs for a DCF valuation. Its P/FCF ratio of 20.2x and FCF yield of 4.95% then frame how MDT is priced against peers on a cash flow basis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of MDT?
Medtronic plc currently generates $4.23 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $85.60, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is MDT undervalued?
MDT trades at a P/FCF ratio of 20.2x with a free cash flow yield of 4.95%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether MDT is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value MDT stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Medtronic plc: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($4.23) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Medical - Devices industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting MDT's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.57x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to MDT?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Medtronic plc, this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Medical - Devices trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. MDT's ROIC of 6.1% means the company's return on invested capital sits below the level that typically clears its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect MDT stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For MDT, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 14.0x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See MDT PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Healthcare valuationsDCF and P/E value MDT with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-07-30. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.