Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) Stock Valuation — DCF Analysis
Medical - Instruments & Supplies · NASDAQ
Current Price
$76.01
Intrinsic Value
$88.31
+13.9% margin of safety
COMPETITIVE MOAT
↑Established Women's Health Focus
Hologic has a deep-rooted specialization in women's health, building significant brand recognition and trust within this specific medical segment.
↑Regulatory Approval Expertise
The company demonstrates a strong track record in navigating complex regulatory pathways, as evidenced by the recent FDA approval support for its Aptima HPV Assay.
↑AI-Enhanced Diagnostics
Investment in AI-powered mammography technology positions Hologic at the forefront of advanced diagnostic imaging, offering a competitive edge in cancer detection.
INVESTMENT RISKS
↓Private Equity Ownership
The recent acquisition by Blackstone and TPG introduces potential shifts in strategic direction and financial priorities under private ownership.
↓CEO Transition
The retirement of the long-standing CEO, Steve MacMillan, upon the go-private transaction creates leadership uncertainty and a potential period of adjustment.
↓Market Competition
The medical instruments and supplies industry is highly competitive, requiring continuous innovation and market penetration to maintain market share.
Base case
HOLX base case valuation
A base case discounted cash flow model for HOLX estimates an intrinsic value of about $88.31 per share, against a current price of $76.01. The model assumes 7.4% annual free cash flow growth, a 10.0% discount rate, and a 17x exit multiple.
Intrinsic Value
$88.31
Margin of safety
+13.9%
Expected annual return
+3.0%
Base case assumptions: 7.4% annual growth, 10.0% discount rate, 17x exit multiple, 5 year projection. Data as of 2026-04-07.
This base case uses default assumptions and is not financial advice. The intrinsic value changes significantly when the growth rate or discount rate changes. Open the calculator to set your own assumptions and see the full sensitivity range.
Customize the HOLX valuation
Adjust the growth rate, discount rate, and exit multiple to see how the intrinsic value and margin of safety for Hologic, Inc. respond.
Open DCF Calculator for HOLXCompany Overview
Hologic, Inc. is a medical technology company focused on designing, producing, and marketing a diverse range of diagnostic tests, medical imaging systems, and surgical solutions. Its core mission is to enhance women's health through proactive detection and effective treatment, serving patients in the United States, across Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and various other international markets. The company operates through four distinct business units: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health. Within its Diagnostics segment, Hologic provides Aptima molecular diagnostic assays for identifying infectious microorganisms, alongside Aptima viral load tests for conditions like HIV, Hepatitis C, and Hepatitis B. It also offers Aptima and Panther Fusion SARS-CoV-2 assays for detecting the virus, the ThinPrep System for cytology applications, and the Rapid Fetal Fibronectin Test to help clinicians assess the likelihood of premature birth. Furthermore, the company supplies various diagnostic tests for Group B Streptococcus. The Breast Health division delivers advanced imaging and analytical solutions, including 2D and 3D digital mammography systems with accompanying reading workstations. This segment also features minimally invasive breast biopsy guidance systems and devices, products for marking and localizing breast biopsy sites, specimen radiology tools, ultrasound solutions, connectivity options, and products supporting breast-conserving surgical procedures. For GYN Surgical needs, Hologic offers the NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System, designed to manage abnormal uterine bleeding, and the MyoSure Hysteroscopic Tissue Removal System for the excision of uterine fibroids, polyps, and other pathologies. Additionally, the Fluent Fluid Management System facilitates liquid distention during diagnostic and operative hysteroscopic interventions. The Skeletal Health segment includes the Horizon DXA, a dual-energy X-ray system, and the Fluoroscan Insight FD mini C-arm, which is utilized for minimally invasive orthopedic surgical procedures. Hologic distributes its comprehensive product portfolio through a combination of its dedicated direct sales and service teams, as well as via independent distributors and sales representatives. Established in 1985, Hologic, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Marlborough, Massachusetts.
Financial Metrics — HOLX Stock Valuation Data
Revenue/Share (TTM)
$18.39
FCF/Share (TTM)
$4.45
ROIC (TTM)
7.2%
ROE (TTM)
11.0%
P/FCF
17.0x
EV/EBITDA
17.1x
FCF Yield
5.89%
Debt/Equity
0.48x
Based on trailing twelve-month data, HOLX shows a free cash flow per share of $4.45 and a ROIC of 7.2%, key inputs for stock valuation using the DCF method. The P/FCF ratio of 17.0x and FCF yield of 5.89% are important context metrics when evaluating HOLX's stock valuation relative to peers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the intrinsic value of HOLX?
Hologic, Inc. currently generates $4.45 in free cash flow per share. At the current price of $76.01, a DCF model would discount these cash flows at an appropriate WACC and apply a terminal growth rate to arrive at an intrinsic value. The result depends heavily on your growth and discount rate assumptions — a 1% change in WACC typically shifts the fair value estimate by 10-15%. In MiniValuator the model uses a single discount rate that you can edit directly, 10% by default, rather than a computed WACC.
Is HOLX undervalued?
HOLX trades at a P/FCF ratio of 17.0x with a free cash flow yield of 5.89%. This P/FCF is in a moderate range. However, whether HOLX is truly undervalued requires comparing the DCF intrinsic value to the current market price and evaluating whether the margin of safety is sufficient for your risk tolerance.
How do I value HOLX stock using DCF?
To perform a DCF valuation on Hologic, Inc.: (1) Start with the trailing free cash flow per share ($4.45) as the base, (2) project future FCF growth over 5-10 years based on Medical - Instruments & Supplies industry trends and company fundamentals, (3) apply a discount rate (WACC) reflecting HOLX's risk profile — with a debt-to-equity of 0.48x, capital structure is an important factor, and (4) add a terminal value for cash flows beyond the projection period.
What is DCF valuation and how does it apply to HOLX?
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) estimates what a company is worth today based on its future cash generation. For Hologic, Inc., this means projecting how much free cash flow the company will produce over the next 5-10 years, shaped by Medical - Instruments & Supplies trends, then discounting those amounts to today's dollars. HOLX's ROIC of 7.2% suggests the company may face challenges generating returns above its cost of capital.
How does WACC affect HOLX stock valuation?
WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) is the discount rate in a DCF model — it reflects the minimum return investors require. For HOLX, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48x, the capital structure directly influences WACC. A 1% increase in WACC typically reduces the intrinsic value by 10-15%. At an EV/EBITDA of 17.1x, the market's implied discount rate can be reverse-engineered for comparison. In MiniValuator you set this discount rate yourself as a single editable number, 10% by default, instead of computing a formal WACC.
Learn More
- See HOLX PE Valuation → — Earnings-based stock valuation using PE ratio analysis
- DCF Methodology — Step-by-step guide to discounted cash flow analysis
- PE Methodology — Guide to PE ratio stock valuation
- WACC — Understanding the discount rate used in DCF
- Margin of Safety — How to evaluate downside protection
- Intrinsic Value — How to evaluate stock fair value
- How to Calculate Intrinsic Value — Complete guide for investors
Related Valuations
All Healthcare valuationsDCF and P/E value HOLX with different methods and assumptions, so the two conclusions can differ. Compare the P/E fair value.
Price as of 2026-04-07. Financial data from Financial Modeling Prep (trailing twelve months) · Valuation methodology by Charlie Wang.
This is an estimate, not investment advice.